The cryptocurrency market just experienced a dramatic trading day. According to data shared by Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF—IBIT—saw its trading volume surge to nearly $10 billion, setting a new single-day record since its launch, even as the price dropped 13% in one day.
At the same time, the Bitcoin price suffered a steep intraday decline of almost 15%, sliding from an opening price near $73,100 down to around $62,400. This marks the first time in 15 months that Bitcoin has fallen below the $70,000 threshold.
Market Dynamics
In traditional financial markets, high trading volume is generally seen as a positive signal of active investor participation. However, the situation in the cryptocurrency market at the start of February was quite different.
BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust, set a stunning single-day trading volume record of $10 billion, even as its price dropped sharply by 13%. This figure far surpasses its previous record of about $8 billion, while the fund’s typical daily trading volume is usually just several billion dollars.
The data shows this is more than a statistical coincidence. Bitcoin experienced a rapid price drop that day, falling from an opening near $73,100 to a low around $62,400—a decline of nearly 15%. This means that, despite the steep price drop, investors remained highly active in ETF trading, creating a unique market phenomenon.
Market Mechanisms Behind the Data
An analysis of market depth data reveals several dimensions of this sell-off. According to Bloomberg-compiled data, IBIT has seen trading volumes exceed $5 billion multiple times during several consecutive weeks of cryptocurrency price declines. Importantly, this is not an isolated event. The total market capitalization of the entire crypto market has shrunk from over $3 trillion at the end of January to about $2.16 trillion, reflecting a broad market adjustment.
During this downturn, Bitcoin broke through several key psychological price levels. Losing the $70,000 mark is seen as highly symbolic. Shiliang Tang, Managing Partner at Monarq Asset Management, points out that this price level carries significant political and psychological weight. Many market observers believe that falling below $70,000 could trigger a broader wave of selling.
Institutions vs. Retail Investors
During this period of market turbulence, institutional and retail investors displayed distinctly different behaviors. On-chain data shows a massive "class transfer" of crypto holdings. Addresses holding less than one Bitcoin—typically retail investors—were selling aggressively as prices fell, while "whale" wallets with large Bitcoin holdings showed active accumulation, increasing their positions during the panic selling by retail holders.
Meanwhile, flows into US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds fluctuated significantly, with institutional demand showing marked uncertainty. Bloomberg data indicates that after a net inflow of about $562 million on Monday, more than $800 million flowed out of these ETFs over the next two trading days.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: Short and Long Term
According to Gate market data, as of February 6, 2026, Bitcoin was priced at $64,796.1, with a 24-hour trading volume of $1.95 billion and a market capitalization of $1.56 trillion. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin’s price changed by -10.67%, and its market dominance stood at 56.80%.
Based on current market data and analysis, several scenarios could play out for Bitcoin’s future price:
Bearish scenario (20% probability): If US inflation unexpectedly spirals out of control, forcing the Federal Reserve to resume rate hikes, or if an AI bubble bursts and triggers a global stock market crash, Bitcoin could test the $60,000 support level.
Base case scenario (50% probability): The market will bottom out in Q1, with Bitcoin trading between $82,000 and $92,000. As global liquidity opens up, the price could rally toward $150,000 by year-end.
Bullish scenario: Based on Gate platform data, analysts predict that by 2026, Bitcoin’s average price could reach $78,559.7, fluctuating between $58,134.17 and $85,630.07. By 2031, Bitcoin’s price may rise to $210,873.2, representing a potential return of +108.00% compared to current levels.
| Time Frame | Lowest Price | Highest Price | Average Price | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $58,134.17 | $85,630.07 | $78,559.7 | — |
| 2027 | $66,496.85 | $122,321.38 | $82,094.88 | +4.00% |
| 2031 | $89,907.18 | $210,873.2 | $163,467.6 | +108.00% |
Liquidity Crisis and Market Divergence
Liquidity shifts are a key factor in understanding current market dynamics. According to Kaiko data, Bitcoin’s market depth has dropped more than 30% from its peak in October last year. The last time liquidity was this low was after the FTX collapse in 2022, and a broad contraction in market liquidity may be driving the current price decline.
The market is showing clear signs of divergence: large institutional products are performing strongly, while the overall market faces challenges. IBIT remains the largest spot Bitcoin ETF, with assets of about $56 billion, even as the total crypto market has fallen from a peak market cap of over $3 trillion.
Crypto in the Macro Context
Shifts in the macro environment have had a major impact on the cryptocurrency market. News that Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair has triggered further Bitcoin selling.
Warsh is known for his hawkish stance on inflation, and his nomination could dampen expectations for future Fed easing. At the same time, the correlation between crypto and traditional risk assets is increasing. Bitcoin is showing a stronger link to tech stocks—when the Nasdaq falls, Bitcoin typically drops even more sharply; when tech stocks rebound, Bitcoin’s gains are also more pronounced.
With Bitcoin once again falling below the $70,000 psychological threshold, the market is gripped by a complex mood. Just days ago, BlackRock filed to register the iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF, planning to generate returns for investors by selling covered call options.
Now, with Bitcoin trading near $64,796, a new debate is emerging: Is the decentralized finance promised by the blockchain revolution ultimately just a new form of centralized control? The persistent negative Coinbase premium in recent weeks suggests US institutions are continuing to sell, while global retail investors are trying to "catch a falling knife." When the next wave of liquidity truly arrives, will capital continue to flow into institutionalized Bitcoin, or will it seek out emerging assets that genuinely embody the spirit of decentralization?
