Morgan Stanley: El dólar se debilitará debido a la reducción del diferencial de tasas entre EE.UU. y Europa y el impacto de la guerra en Irán en el crecimiento económico

金色财经_ · 2026-03-26T05:35:07+00:00

Morgan Stanley predicts que el dólar se debilitará debido al estrechamiento del diferencial de tasas entre EE.UU. y Europa y a que la guerra en Irán suprime el crecimiento económico. Desde febrero, el dólar se ha fortalecido debido a sus propiedades de refugio seguro, pero el euro y el yen han caído debido a su dependencia de la energía de Oriente Medio. Se espera que la Reserva Federal reduzca las tasas dos veces, mientras que el Banco Central Europeo aumentará las tasas en 50 puntos básicos, y la trayectoria de las tasas será desfavorable para el dólar.

金色财经_

2026-03-26 05:35:07

Generación de resúmenes en curso

Goldman Sachs reports that on March 26, Morgan Stanley stated that as the interest rate differential between the US and Europe gradually narrows and the Iran conflict suppresses economic growth, the US dollar will weaken. The dollar, which has been strengthening since February 28 following the US-Israel joint attack on Iran, is benefiting from its safe-haven properties and its status as the world’s largest energy producer currency.
The index measuring the dollar against a basket of currencies has risen 2% since the conflict erupted and reached its highest level since December last year on Monday. Meanwhile, the euro and yen both fell over 2% during the conflict, due to their high dependence on energy supplies from the Middle East.
Morgan Stanley believes the Federal Reserve may overlook the “temporary inflation shocks” and focus on growth, expecting two rate cuts this year. In Europe, strategists expect the European Central Bank to raise interest rates by 50 basis points “to combat inflation.” They stated: “Whether in absolute terms or relative market pricing, the interest rate trend could be unfavorable for the dollar.”
Morgan Stanley’s view aligns with Citadel Securities, which earlier this week said investors are beginning to shift focus from the initial inflation shocks to their impact on global economic growth.

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