Institución: El crecimiento del empleo en EE. UU. en abril podría desacelerarse, ya que el efecto de impulso de los factores temporales desaparece

Golden Finance reports that on May 8th, the fading effects of temporary factors such as warmer weather and healthcare workers returning to work from strikes may slow U.S. employment growth in April, but this does not imply a substantial change in the labor market conditions, with the unemployment rate expected to remain stable at 4.3%. Data is also expected to show an acceleration in wage growth last month, which will further reinforce market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged until 2027. A Reuters survey indicates that economists attribute some of the volatility in employment data to adjustments this year to the “birth-death model,” used to estimate employment changes due to new business openings or closures. Some suggest that the high turnover among companies makes it difficult for the Bureau of Labor Statistics to accurately estimate job creation related to new enterprises. Additionally, fluctuations are exacerbated by weather, strikes, government layoffs, and significant labor market shifts caused by the Trump administration’s crackdown on illegal immigration. Economists recommend referencing a three-month moving average of employment data to better understand labor market conditions. Citigroup economist Veronica Clark stated that averaging the recent months’ data still shows moderate positive employment growth. Considering the significant changes in immigration flows that have led to a sharp decline in average employment growth this year, this alone is not a cause for concern. (Dongxin News)