Current game between the US and Iran has become a core variable influencing the global economy and cryptocurrency prices. The US's combined tactics not only caused panic in Asian stock markets but also inadvertently benefited itself—significantly easing the pressure of dollar depreciation and capital outflows.

The underlying logic here is quite clear. Trump’s rise to power represents the interests of traditional “old money,” while the Nasdaq bubble is now visibly inflated. Taking advantage of the conflict, capital has naturally shifted from tech stocks to traditional energy sectors, completing a major reshuffle. It’s important to note that the US is now the world’s largest oil producer, and soaring oil prices directly fatten the wallets of the old money, perfectly aligning with the interests of their backers.
The upcoming scenario (personal view):
The US is unlikely to stop this wave; there may be another major move later on.
• Action targets: For example, precise strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities or Hark Island, while also sending a message to Middle Eastern rulers to stir regional conflicts further.
• Final outcome: Once strategic goals are achieved, they will unilaterally declare a “major historic victory” and then withdraw troops with a pat on the back.
Trading perspective response strategies:
• Cryptocurrency market (beware of downside risk): According to this macro script, crypto prices are likely to experience another sharp decline, with a high probability of breaking previous lows. The current suspense is whether it will “drop straight down” or “initially attract buyers before crashing.” Honestly, my plan in April was to wait for a rebound to break above 76,000 before entering short positions, but the rebound was too weak, and the second day of the monthly candle started turning downward—this is a very dangerous warning sign.
• Current best targets (short Japan and South Korea): Setting aside the crypto market, I personally believe the most comfortable risk-reward strategy now is shorting Japanese and South Korean stock indices. Especially the Japanese stock market, where geopolitical fears combined with Japan’s own “debt crisis” could create a huge downward space with significant potential.