Price Review
Figure:https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT
In early June 2025, the price of Bitcoin repeatedly tested the $110,000 level, reaching a new local high near $110,500, but failed to hold. Subsequently, profit-taking from large holders led to a surge of sell orders, causing the price to quickly retract to the $104,000–$105,000 range. As of noon on June 15th, Beijing time, BTC was quoted at $104,447, down about 5% from the recent peak. Technical charts show that bullish momentum at the daily level has weakened, and trading volume has not expanded alongside the price increase, suggesting that the current rally lacks sustainability.
- High point and retracement range: a drop from $110,500 to $104,000, with a single retracement of about 6%;
- Consolidation range: Support was obtained multiple times at $104K–$105K, but it is difficult to regain the upward momentum;
- Investor behavior: Short-term profit-taking dominates, and new buying sentiment is very cautious.
Macroeconomic factors
- The trade game between the US and China
Although there are reports that high-level talks between China and the U.S. have made some progress, the timeline for the final agreement signing has not yet been announced. The market has significant divergence in expectations for commodities and risk assets, making it difficult for Bitcoin to continue its upward momentum by leveraging the “rebound in risk appetite.” - US CPI and interest rate expectations
The recently released US May CPI year-on-year has moderately declined, easing inflationary pressures, but core inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target. Institutions are adjusting their predictions for the interest rate hike path within the year, leading to a short-term strengthening of the dollar index, which exerts some pressure on dollar-denominated crypto assets. - Geopolitical tensions
Conflicts have erupted again in some regions of the Middle East, causing oil prices to surge and triggering global demand for safe-haven assets. However, this time, safe-haven funds have not flowed massively into Bitcoin, but rather have concentrated more on traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and government bonds, highlighting the still unstable safe-haven property of Bitcoin. - Market Sentiment and Volatility Index (VIX)
Panic related to the cryptocurrency market - the Fear and Greed Index has recently fallen from “Greed” to neutral levels, indicating that investors are less willing to chase prices at high levels. In an environment of increasing uncertainty, the momentum for new funds entering the market has weakened.
Market Outlook
Short-term: If BTC is to challenge $110K again, it needs to first establish support in the range of $106,000–$108,000 to attract more buying interest; at the same time, daily trading volume must increase to confirm the continuation of bullish momentum. Otherwise, if it fails to hold the $104K support for several consecutive days, it may further test the psychological level of $100,000 and test support near the 50-day moving average.
Mid-term: As macro data for the second half of the year is gradually disclosed, including the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and U.S. employment data for June, these will become key factors in determining the next stage of the cryptocurrency market. If inflation continues to decline and the Federal Reserve shifts to a dovish stance, the dollar may be under pressure, and Bitcoin is expected to restart its upward trend. However, if inflation rebounds or the Federal Reserve hints at a hawkish stance, it will again suppress the price increase potential.
Operation Suggestions (Beginner):
- Focus on key support/resistance
- Batch allocation and take profit
- Risk Control
- Information Tracking
