Ahead of the June 11 opening of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, trading volume in Polymarket’s World Cup winner market had already reached about $2 billion, while the equivalent market on Kalshi, a U.S. trading platform regulated by the CFTC, also exceeded $100 million. According to Polymarket data, the implied probabilities of Spain and France to win were both close to 16%, leading England, Portugal, and defending champion Argentina.
Confirmed win probabilities for each major team
As of the report date (June 8), the implied probabilities for teams in the prediction markets were:
Spain: Polymarket ~16%; Kalshi ~16.5%
France: Polymarket ~16%; Kalshi ~16.2%
England: Polymarket ~11%; Kalshi ~10.1%
Portugal: Polymarket ~10%; Kalshi ~10.5%
Argentina (defending champion): Polymarket ~9%; Kalshi ~8.9%
How prediction markets work and the current status of Kalshi/Polymarket
Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to future events; a contract trading price of 40 cents implies a market probability of 40%, and if the event occurs, $1 is paid. Users can open, close, and adjust positions before the event results are revealed.
Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC; Polymarket’s main international trading platforms are not regulated by the CFTC, and typically prohibit use by U.S. users, but it has also carried out some business in the U.S. The 2026 World Cup is the first men’s World Cup since prediction markets expanded into mainstream sports speculation, featuring 48 teams and 104 matches.
Regulatory review: CFTC, state-level legal jurisdictions, and insider risks
Several U.S. states have determined that sports prediction markets like these are sports gambling and should be regulated under local laws; the CFTC has said that these platforms’ contracts fall within its regulatory jurisdiction. Specific issues the regulators focus on include: KYC (know-your-customer) compliance, market manipulation, risks of insider information (such as team staff or medical personnel potentially getting access to injury information in advance), and fraud prevention.
Kalshi uses identity verification and monitoring procedures; Polymarket says it maintains a framework for market integrity and has, in past cases, handed over suspicious wallets to law enforcement. Bitget Wallet operating director Alvin Kan said: “The World Cup shows how important this is: billions of people not only watch the same moments of the matches, but also form opinions in real time, debate match outcomes, and take action based on their beliefs.”
Frequently asked questions
What are the World Cup market sizes for Polymarket and Kalshi, respectively?
As of the June 8, 2026 reporting date, Polymarket’s World Cup winner market had about $2 billion in trading volume before the market opened, while trading volume in Kalshi’s equivalent market exceeded $100 million. This places the 2026 World Cup among the largest sports markets on prediction platforms to date.
How fast is the global prediction market growing?
According to data from the Pew Research Center, global prediction market monthly trading volume rose from less than $5 billion in September 2025 to about $24 billion in April 2026 (an increase of about 5 times). For comparison, the monthly average wagering amount for legal sports betting in the U.S. is about $14 billion.
How do cryptocurrency platforms participate in the World Cup?
According to reports, exchanges and wallet providers such as Bitget, OKX, and Gate have launched World Cup-related products or activities aimed at turning global attention into platform trading activity. This move is part of a broader trend in which cryptocurrency marketing is shifting toward linking products with major cultural events.
