Analysis and trading suggestions for ETH market price of 4635 on August 15

Market Status and Key Indicators
1. Technical signals
Support level: 4600 (psychological barrier) has been broken, the next key support is at 4550 (4-hour EMA7) and 4500 (daily EMA7). If 4,500 is lost, it may trigger a sell-off to $4,350.
Resistance levels: 4640 (previous high resistance), 4700 (+1 standard deviation resistance). Only a breakthrough at 4700 could potentially restart the upward trend.
Divergence in indicators:
Short signal: The J value of the 4-hour KDJ is overbought (102.59), MACD-DIF is deeply in the negative zone, and there is a divergence between volume and price (volume < 10-day average volume).
Bullish signal: Daily EMA golden cross remains intact (4383), Supertrend support at 4504 is still valid.
2. Market Sentiment and Capital Flow
Market: 64% probability that ETH will reach 5000 by the end of the month, 87% probability of setting a new all-time high, indicating a bullish outlook in the medium to long term.
On-chain data: Net outflow of 55.5 million on August 14 indicates reduced selling pressure, and institutions are still accumulating.
Macro risk: The US PPI inflation exceeded expectations, triggering a short-term pullback, but the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September (50 basis points) supports risk assets.
Operational Suggestions
Immediate Strategy (1-4 hours)
Short Selling Plan (60% Probability of Profit):
Entry: Short with a light position at the current price of 4635, or add to the position if it rebounds to 4640 without significant volume (VOL<50000).
Target: 4550 → 4500 (Profit 85-135/ETH).
Stop loss: 4650 (breakthrough previous high +0.3%).
Long position emergency conditions:
If the volume breaks through 4640 (VOL > 60,000) and the 4-hour MACD turns to a golden cross, chase long to 4700.
Or it may drop sharply to 4500 and stabilize (15-minute long lower shadow), with a short-term target of 4600.
Position and Risk Control
Position: ≤5% of total funds (avoid heavy positions, prevent black swan events).
Stop-loss discipline: Single loss ≤ 1.5% of total funds, profit reaches $80 to take profit at 50%.
Timeliness: Closely monitor around the opening of European and American markets (liquidity fluctuation period).
Conclusion: Prioritize shorting at the current price of 4635, but strictly adhere to stop-loss and prepare for bullish plans.
Short selling: Technical pullback demand dominates, target 4500.
Long: Need to wait for 4600 to stabilize or a breakout above $4640 signal.
Suggestion: Open a light short position (stop loss at 4650). If it touches the support at 4500, consider going long to capture the rebound profit. #美7月PPI年率高于预期