Is Bitcoin fully in a bear market? A multi-dimensional framework analysis reveals conclusions beyond expectations.

Most traders must be asking: Has Bitcoin really entered a bear market?

To strip away market noise and anchor to core trends, and also to calibrate everyone's emotions, I have integrated five major analytical frameworks for comprehensive judgment. The conclusion is much more optimistic than the panic emotion. Let's penetrate the surface together and see the essence of the market:

1. Fear and Greed Index: A Contrarian Signal Under Extreme Fear

The current index is only 15, in the "extreme fear" range, and the panic sentiment has lasted for over a month. This extreme emotion often triggers a sell-off cycle, further amplifying downward pressure. If the index remains below 20, it may trigger more leveraged liquidations.

But historical data has never lied: extreme fear has never been the end of a bear market, but rather a window for buying gold. The current panic sentiment is approaching the bottom of the cycle, and short-term rebound momentum is brewing—this means that we are currently in a short-term bear market correction, rather than a complete reversal of the bull-bear pattern.

2. Technical Analysis: Bear market signals are clear, overselling hides a rebound opportunity.

• The "death cross" of the 50-day/200-day moving averages has been officially confirmed, showing a pattern highly similar to the starting point of the bear market in 2022. The technical aspects are releasing strong bearish signals, and with the trend reversal, the target range below directly points to $74,000-$80,000.

• On the 14th, the RSI indicator quickly fell from the overbought range (70+) to 35 (oversold range). High volatility accompanied by oversold conditions suggests a high probability of a technical rebound within 1-2 weeks. However, as it has not broken below the 30 level, there is currently no strong reversal momentum.

In summary, the technical analysis has clearly indicated a short-term bearish trend, but the oversold signals provide a gaming space for short-term trading.

3. Fundamental Analysis: Short-term corrections do not change the long-term bull market backdrop.

• ETF Fund Flow: A total inflow of $61.9 billion for the year, but net outflow began after Q3; institutions (such as MicroStrategy) continue to accumulate positions, while retail investors' panic selling has become the main selling pressure in the short term;

• Market liquidity: The U.S. government shutdown has caused a halt in the Treasury's funding, coupled with intensified divergence in expectations for interest rate cuts in December, leading to increased short-term macro uncertainty;

• Correlation and Cycle: The correlation between Bitcoin and traditional markets has risen to 0.6-0.7, deepening the binding effects of interest rates, inflation, and liquidity policies. The macro tightening tone remains unchanged for 2025, but the core logic of a long-term bull market remains intact — the large-scale liquidity injection cycle has yet to arrive, and the current short-term capital outflow is merely a phase correction in the market.

4. On-chain data analysis: The market is weak but the foundation has not collapsed.

• The number of active addresses has dropped by 20% from its peak, trading volume has plummeted by 30%, and on-chain data clearly reflects a sluggish market, with significant characteristics of a short-term bear market.

• The proportion of addresses holding long-term (holding period > 1 year) has risen to 65%. The UTXO age distribution clearly shows that institutions and long-term funds are still accumulating chips instead of panic selling—this indicates that although the market is weak, there is no systemic risk of a complete collapse.

5. Market Cycle Analysis: ETFs Reshape the Cycle, Bull Market Continues Until 2026

The traditional 4-year halving cycle of Bitcoin will be restructured by ETFs in 2025, and the entry of traditional capital will break the original supply and demand pattern. According to historical patterns, it should reach a higher historical peak 19 months after the halving, but the continuous absorption of supply by ETFs has altered the cycle dynamics, weakening the impact of the peak.

This pattern is highly similar to the end of the cycle in late 2017, and it is likely to see a rebound after a 20% correction. The conclusion is clear: the bull market cycle has not ended and is likely to extend until 2026, with a long-term target price still anchored at $200,000.

Core conclusion: short-term bear market correction, long-term bull market unchanged.

Has a full bear market already begun? The answer is no:

• Short-term (1-3 months): We have entered a bear market correction phase, with technical indicators, on-chain data, and the macro environment all pointing to downward pressure. The probability of falling to the $70,000-$80,000 range is about 40%;

• Long-term pattern: Institutional ETF holdings and on-chain long-term capital accumulation both confirm the stability of the fundamentals, with no risk of collapse. The cycle reshaped by the ETF is likely to extend to 2026, and the logic of a long-term bull market remains intact.

Subsequent market simulation

1. A deep pullback to test the bottom at $70,000, probability 15%;

2. Interval oscillation and consolidation, using time to exchange for space, probability 50%;

3. The rebound is expected to rise above 100,000 USD, with a probability of 35%, and may even set a new historical high. #BTC