April 28 Crude Oil Analysis: Geopolitical disturbances continue to ferment, crude oil leads strongly, and the future direction is clear!

As of April 28, international crude oil remains at a high and strong level, with WTI crude trading in the 95-97 range, Brent crude stabilizing at the 108 level, and domestic SC crude oil futures moving in tandem with significant intraday gains. The core support comes from the rigid supply gap caused by Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts, with the supply-demand tightness continuing.

The current key variable focuses on the Middle East situation: US-Iran negotiations have stalled, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively low-traffic, with transit volume only recovering to 10% of pre-war levels, and global oil shipping routes remain obstructed, daily creating a supply gap of hundreds of thousands of barrels. Coupled with attacks on Russian oil export facilities and passive production cuts of monthly output, global oil inventories continue to decline, and the spot market is extremely tight, building a strong bottom support for oil prices.

Multiple bearish signals on the supply side: OPEC+ continues large-scale production cuts, combined with damage to Middle Eastern oil facilities and long production resumption cycles, making it difficult for global idle capacity to fill the gap; on the demand side, there are no significant bearish factors, and in a high-inflation environment, crude oil's rigid demand remains resilient. The supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to reverse in the short term.

Technically, the market is in a high-range consolidation, with WTI core support at 95 and 92, resistance at 98 and 100; Brent support at 105, resistance at 110. Overall, geopolitical risk premiums persist, and the supply shortage fundamentals are unlikely to ease quickly. Oil prices are expected to remain high in the short term. Close attention should be paid to US-Iran negotiations, Strait navigation dynamics, and global inventory data, while remaining alert to sharp fluctuations caused by sudden changes in the situation. $BTC $GT $ETH #伊朗提出霍尔木兹海峡重开协议条件 #加密市场小幅下跌 #原油价格上涨