Powell is gone, leaving behind $120 oil prices and a group of tech giants popping champagne in the trenches.

In the past 24 hours, three major events happened, each damn well hitting your wallet.

The Federal Reserve split 8 to 4 in a shocking division.

Oil prices surged past $120.

Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta all reported earnings simultaneously.

Putting these three events on the same day isn’t a coincidence; it’s history knocking on the door.

First, let’s talk about the old man who left.

Powell, the final time at the helm.

This old guy said one thing:

“The independence of the central bank is something worth risking your life for.”

Taste that. Savor it.

A person who’s been harassed, threatened, even threatened with dismissal by Trump since 2018, spoke his honest truth at his last press conference.

But the market doesn’t care about that.

What the market cares about is: 8 to 4.

Inside the Fed, four people opposed holding rates steady.

What does that mean historically? One dissenting vote used to be called “intense controversy.” Today, it’s four votes.

What does that imply?

It means even the Fed is confused. On one side, rising oil prices push inflation higher; on the other, Iran’s war drags the economy down. Both are pits, and falling into either means a fall.

The conclusion? High interest rates will stay for a long time.

The 10-year US Treasury yield jumped directly to 4.41%.

Why should Bitcoin go up?

Now, let’s talk about that lunatic.

Trump.

The Wall Street Journal revealed: an indefinite maritime blockade of Iranian ports.

No negotiations accepted.

Brent crude oil shot up to $120.27 intraday.

This is the highest since June 2022.

Let me remind you: in 2022, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine pushed oil prices to a peak of $127. Then what? Three months later, global inflation exploded.

Now, the same script, with a different cast, is playing again.

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for over nine weeks.

US crude oil exports hit a record high, 6 million barrels per day.

Supply gap? Not at all. The gap is only widening.

What did Trump say? “Until Tehran agrees to the nuclear deal”—

The question is, why would Tehran agree? They’re not fools.

So, is $120 the top for oil? Dream on.

Next number: $140.

What really sends chills down my spine is this:

Last night, four giants’ earnings reports came out simultaneously.

Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon.

Guess what?

All their businesses are doing incredibly well.

Google Cloud grew 63%, a record high.

Amazon’s EPS beat expectations by 70%, AWS grew 28%, the fastest in three years.

Meta’s ad revenue increased 33%.

Microsoft Azure grew 40%.

Impressive, right?

But the market isn’t buying it.

Meta dropped 6% after hours.

Microsoft dipped slightly.

Only Google and Amazon rose.

Why?

Because everyone’s only watching one number: Capex (capital expenditure).

Meta increased its full-year Capex to a record $145 billion.

Microsoft’s full-year Capex hit $190 billion, up 61% from last year, with $25 billion spent on chips and memory price hikes.

Amazon’s free cash flow plummeted 95% over the past 12 months, down to just $1.2 billion, after investing $20 billion into infrastructure.

Get it?

Business isn’t the problem.

It’s thriving.

But the bills are skyrocketing.

Zuckerberg said on the call: “We’re heading toward providing superintelligence to billions of people.”

The market shot back: “Go to hell, just pay your bills first.”

The stock fell 6%.

And that’s the sentence I want to emphasize today:

“We’re popping champagne in the trenches, but the shell costs have tripled.”

The earnings reports of MAG4 (Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta) perfectly illustrate this.

Revenue and profit are up, AI demand is exploding.

But oil at $120, chip prices rising, data center costs soaring.

These giants are essentially the world’s biggest “cost absorbers.” No matter how well they do, they can’t withstand the supply chain costs from the ground up.

Isn’t that you and me?

Your salary increased 5%, rent up 20%.

Your project succeeded, gas prices doubled.

You made 30% on Bitcoin, but oil prices raised your living costs by 40%.

On the surface, you’re a winner.

But in the big picture, you’re a loser.

Why is Bitcoin still hovering around $75k?

Last night, Bitcoin dropped from $77,800 to $75,100, a $2,700 swing.

Fear index at 43, in the panic zone.

Mechanism is clear:

Trump’s indefinite blockade → oil surpasses $120 → Fed dares not cut rates → US bond yields hit 4.41% → discount rate for risk assets rises → Bitcoin’s $80k threshold doubled in just two weeks.

Bitunix analysts said a hard truth:

“Keeping oil above $110 will continue to squeeze liquidity flowing into crypto markets.”

What does that mean?

You only have so much cash in your pocket. Oil prices go up, you spend an extra $200 on gas, and you have $200 less to buy coins.

Institutions are the same.

High oil prices drain cash, everyone has to tighten their belts.

$80K? Wait a bit longer.

But last night, there was a piece of news most people overlooked:

Meta quietly announced: launching stablecoin payment features across all platforms.

This is the closest to that dream since Zuckerberg’s Libra failed in 2019—four years ago.

On the same day, Fortune published a report:

The share of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen to 57%.

The foundation of petrodollars is being eroded.

These two events happened on the same day.

It’s not a coincidence.

It’s history shifting gears.

To sum up,

First: Powell is gone, leaving behind $120 oil.

The Fed enters the Powell era, with Warsh taking over. If the first meeting sees oil spike to $140, it could be a rate hike. That would be a market reset that no one would be comfortable with.

Second: MAG4 says their business is fine, but bills are rising.

That’s a true reflection of you and me. The surface looks good, but the numbers make you want to cry.

Third: The $80K threshold is heavier than you think.

It’s not that Bitcoin can’t do it; it’s that the world is paying the price for the madness of the past two years. War, inflation, high interest rates—triple whammy.

Suddenly, I remember Powell’s words:

“The independence of the central bank is something worth risking your life for.”

And I think I understand him now.

In these four years, he’s been cursed by presidents, summoned by Congress, torn apart by the media. But he still pulled the US economy out of pandemic, inflation, war.

Today, he’s gone.

Leaving behind an 8-4 split Fed, $120 oil, and a group of tech giants popping champagne in the trenches.

And us?

We’re guarding our positions, our judgments, and also risking our lives to protect some things.

So, don’t panic.

$75K Bitcoin isn’t the end of the world.

$120 oil isn’t either.

What truly matters is:

Do you have your own rhythm in this chaotic world?

Are you still chasing gains and selling dips?

Are you still listening to news to trade coins?

Are you still gambling with high leverage for overnight riches?

If yes, then Powell’s departure and falling oil prices won’t help you.

Because your problem isn’t the market; it’s yourself.