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Oil Keeps Inflation Persistent, Crypto Liquidity Weakens

This week, the main variable in the markets shifted from a single geopolitical issue to a two-pronged structure: the cooling of tensions stemming from the Strait of Hormuz and the reshaping of Fed pricing. As the Strait closure entered its eighth week, crude oil rose more than 27% in the last two weeks. Despite this, gold fell by approximately 6% during the same period, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq maintained their levels near all-time highs.

Markets Leave Hormuz Risk Behind While Oil Keeps Inflation Persistent

This pricing indicates that the market does not see the Hormuz issue as a real tail risk. Capital is still flowing towards the earnings expectations of large companies focused on technology and artificial intelligence. In Japan, core CPI again exceeding expectations strengthened the likelihood of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike and led to a strengthening of the yen. The US Justice Department's decision to end its personal investigation into Powell and the FOMC's return to focusing on the Fed's guidance schedule also changed the macroeconomic framework.

The slight dollar strength and the pricing regime before the FOMC meeting have shifted the narrative from an “event-driven geopolitical shock” to one of “energy-fueled persistent inflation and a passive central bank on the sidelines.”

The recovery in risky assets has overshadowed the actual normalization of energy supply. Simultaneous weakness in gold suggests that capital isn’t buying geopolitical hedging, but rather pricing in the assumption that the situation will not spiral out of control and that technology balance sheets will remain strong.

If repairs to the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East energy infrastructure are delayed, oil-fueled persistent inflation could keep long-term bond yields and the dollar at a tight level. Even if the Fed keeps interest rates steady, it may not deliver the dovish signal needed to initiate a new trend in risky assets. This combination of “inflationary floor, high interest rates, and a strong Dollar Index” directly impacts the crypto market. While the beta channel remains under macro pressure, Bitcoin’s relative resilience appears to be the result of structural positioning rather than a new buying spree. A stronger catalyst is needed for an independent move.