Will the CLARITY Act pass?

Currently, the probability of passage is relatively high, but the legislative window is narrowing. As of May 7, Polymarket predicts about a 65% chance of passing within 2026, up from 70% on May 5. The core driver is the stablecoin reward compromise reached on May 1: banning static yields that are "economically or functionally equivalent to" bank deposit interest, while preserving rewards linked to real activities such as trading and consumption. This move resolves nearly a year of industry controversy, turning previous opponents like Coinbase into supporters. The White House also stated it aims to pass the bill before July 4.

However, the window for passage is extremely tight. As of May 7, the Senate Banking Committee has not yet rescheduled hearings, but the week of May 11 is seen as the earliest possible review date. Resistance comes from two sides: banking groups still strongly oppose, warning that current reward provisions could still trigger deposit outflows; some senators demand inclusion of ethical clauses prohibiting public officials from profiting from their positions, or they will vote against. Additionally, the November midterm elections serve as a hard deadline—if the House changes hands, the bill’s political foundation could collapse. Overall, if substantial progress is not made within May, the probability of passing in 2026 will significantly decline.

If passed, the structural impact on the crypto market

Passing the bill will bring three profound changes.

First, the institutional entry channel opens. The core of the bill is to end the jurisdictional vacuum between the SEC and CFTC by establishing a unified asset classification standard and exchange registration framework, eliminating compliance uncertainties for conservative capital such as pension funds and insurance companies. Improvements in custody rules will also remove compliance barriers on institutional balance sheets, promoting Bitcoin and other digital commodities from speculative to structurally demanded assets.

Second, the stablecoin economic model is reshaped. Section 404’s stablecoin reward clause clearly delineates boundaries in the ongoing tug-of-war between traditional banking and crypto industries: stable idle holdings yields are prohibited, but reward mechanisms based on real activities within platforms are preserved. This arrangement addresses banking sector concerns over systemic risks while providing legal protection for the core business models of platforms.

Third, industry concentration accelerates. Stricter compliance requirements will push small and medium exchanges and wallet service providers to face higher operating costs, driving market consolidation toward leading compliant firms. Meanwhile, the regulatory framework established by the U.S. could serve as a reference model for global digital asset rules, influencing cross-border capital flows and international regulatory coordination. #CLARITY法案推进受阻