May 7th, Bitcoin's recent rebound from around 60k to 83k, nearly 40%, is a technical correction within a bear market, not a trend reversal; currently, the 82.5k–84k range is close to the top, and subsequent movements are likely to be volatile downward, breaking previous lows, with the final drop of the bear market only occurring after that, before a true reversal. The following is a detailed analysis from four aspects: core logic, technical basis, historical analogy, and trading suggestions:

1. Core judgment: Bear market rebound, not the start of a bull market

1. The major cycle stance remains unchanged: Although this rebound is strong (60k → 83k, nearly 40% increase), it is defined as a healthy technical correction within a bear market, not the beginning of a main upward wave.

2. Lack of major volume surge signals: The market is gradually rising with consolidation, without short-term large bullish candles or obvious continuous inflows of major funds, which does not meet the characteristics of a main upward wave.

3. Market sentiment features: Short squeeze and shakeout: Typical of a bear market clearing out the short positions—consolidating upward, continuously reaching new highs, forcing short sellers to stop-loss, causing long-short oscillation, ultimately inducing more buyers and turning the market bullish, consistent with the cyclical pattern of sentiment reversal at the end of a bear market.

2. Technical aspect: 82.5k–84k is the top zone

1. Two-stage equal-distance rally (ABCD structure)

◦ The first rebound is approximately equal in magnitude to the second (current stage), with a target around 82.5k.

◦ Yesterday’s high of 82.7k precisely touched this zone.

2. Consolidation upward channel upper boundary

◦ Price is rising slowly along the channel, with yesterday’s high just touching the upper boundary, a typical resistance level.

3. Top signal features

◦ Although no clear reversal candlestick pattern, the combined resonance of space, channel, and sentiment strongly suggests proximity to the top.

◦ The extreme rally only reaches around 84k, which is the last opportunity for bears to reduce their positions.

3. Historical analogy: Bear market structure replication, previous lows likely to be broken

1. Historical rebound comparison: The last bear market bottom also saw a rebound of about 43% (close to this round’s 40%), also a consolidation upward, but later still broke previous lows, completing the final drop before bottoming and reversing.

2. Reversal prerequisites: Double test of previous low + capitulation of longs

◦ True reversal requires bottoming + second test of lows + long liquidation + capitulation of chips.

◦ This process has not yet been completed, so the previous low is likely to be broken, leading to a third wave of decline in the bear market.

4. Trading suggestions: Cautiously go long, prioritize waiting on the right side

1. Spot trading: Never chase highs

◦ Buying at current prices yields an unbalanced risk-reward: 50% upside potential vs. 30%+ downside risk, not worth the risk, better to miss the top than to chase it.

2. Short-term trading: Only buy on dips, strictly control risk

◦ During rebounds, try short-term longs on pullbacks, but exit quickly, avoid long-term holding.

3. Bear positions: Wait for minor cycle reversal signals

◦ Do not blindly short at high levels to avoid repeated stop-losses.

◦ Focus on reversal candlestick patterns, volume, and capital flow in the 82k–84k range; only after signals appear, consider medium- to long-term short positions.
Summary

The current market is at the final stage of a bear market rebound, with 82.5k–84k as a strong resistance top zone. The major cycle still lacks reversal conditions, and subsequent movements are likely to be volatile downward, breaking previous lows and completing the last drop of the bear market. In terms of operation, observe spot positions, look for quick long signals, and wait for short signals, avoiding being tempted by short-term new highs, and adhere to the major cycle bear market mindset.