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1️⃣ How long can the pause in the "Freedom Plan" last?
It seems that the pause could be extended, as Trump announced significant progress in negotiations with Iran and wants to give diplomacy a chance. But at the same time, the US continues to block Iranian tankers, so risks could return at any moment.
2️⃣ Will Iran soften its position before the negotiations in Oman?
Iran has not given clear signals yet. On one hand, Tehran acknowledges progress and the "seriousness" of the US, on the other — it insists that only the nuclear program will be discussed, and the US wants a broader agreement. No real "softening" has occurred so far.
3️⃣ What's next for oil, BTC, and risk assets?
Oil is likely to continue weakening on news of negotiations, but traders are ready for volatility to return at any moment. Bitcoin and risk assets, on the other hand, may continue to rise if negotiations progress (lower oil = reduced inflation risks = support for the Fed), but they remain sensitive to global liquidity.
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