U.S. April ADP employment data significantly exceeded market expectations: the private sector added 109k jobs this month, not only far surpassing the revised 61k in March but also higher than the market consensus of 99k, marking the largest increase since January 2025, nearly 15 months ago.

This data quickly reversed market expectations of rate cuts. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady in June has surged to 94.2%, with only a 5.8% chance of a rate cut, and the probability of maintaining rates for the rest of the year has exceeded 70%. The interest rate swap market's expectations are even more extreme, with the market pushing the timing of rate cuts to early 2028, and some futures prices indicate traders are even betting on the Fed possibly raising rates first in 2027. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen by about 5 basis points. In terms of asset performance, the better-than-expected data has strengthened the dollar's bullish stance, while gold and silver prices have come under pressure and declined.

Overall, the stronger-than-expected employment data reinforces expectations of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, but it also weakens the dovish logic for rate cuts by the Fed this year. Against the complex backdrop of high inflation, geopolitical conflicts, and tariff policies, the market is rapidly digesting a more hawkish Federal Reserve policy path. #ADP就业超预期降息再推后