Market Expectations: Tonight’s 20:30 U.S. April non-farm payroll report is expected to show that employment added only 62,000 jobs. That would be a clear pullback from the unexpectedly large jump of 178,000 in March. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, and average hourly earnings are forecast to rise from 3.5% to 3.8% year over year, indicating that wage inflation is still heating up.

Market Background: Since 2026, U.S. non-farm data has been extremely volatile—January came in far above expectations, February surprised with negative growth, and March nearly tripled the forecast, making it very difficult to predict month to month. There are huge differences in expectations across institutions: Citigroup is bearish, forecasting -15,000 jobs, while Soughbay Research has the most optimistic view, forecasting as high as 133,000 jobs. In April, ADP employment increased by 109,000, the highest level since March 2025, and initial jobless claims hit the lowest since 1969, suggesting that the resilience of the labor market may have been underestimated.

Federal Reserve and Market Implications: Against the backdrop of Middle East conflict driving oil prices higher and inflation staying stubbornly high, expectations for rate cuts this year have basically been erased. To reverse the move away from rate cuts, the unemployment rate would need to rise to 4.5% or employment would need to fall sharply. If tonight’s data comes in significantly stronger than expected, it could trigger a repricing of rate-hike expectations, strengthening the U.S. dollar and putting pressure on gold; if the data deteriorates significantly or even turns negative, safe-haven demand and rate-cut expectations could both benefit gold; if the result is modest and in line with expectations, it will likely continue the current choppy, range-bound pattern.#Gate广场五月交易分享