$80k BTC, are you adding more or running away?

MicroStrategy lost $12.5 billion in the first quarter but is still holding onto 818k BTC. ETF net inflows have continued for two months, with Blackstone attracting $250 million in a single day. But just now, the RSI dropped directly from 58 to 24, with buying momentum halving again within 7 hours.

First look at the surface: after the bearish news is priced in, the price doesn’t fall.

Over the past week, it rebounded from 76k to 80k, a 5%+ bounce. ETF net inflows for two consecutive months totaled nearly $2 billion, with another $46.7 million inflow on May 5. The candlestick chart shows: daily breakout of the downtrend line, a small double bottom forming, and the 20/50-day moving averages already above.

The first thing: institutions are bottom-fishing near 80k with real money.

Blackstone’s IBIT attracted $251 million in a single day, with ETF inflows exceeding $58 billion overall. JPMorgan predicts MicroStrategy’s holdings could reach $30 billion. VanEck executives openly state, “BTC could reach $1 million in the next five years.”

The second thing: fundamentals are stronger than you think.

The 2024 halving has passed two years ago, with fixed block rewards and ongoing deflation. Bitcoin DeFi (like Babylon) is starting to land — BTC is no longer just a “hold and wait for price increase” asset; it can now generate yield.

The third thing: a dangerous technical signal has appeared.

RSI(6) dropped from 58.35 directly to 24.36 — a 58% decline in 7 hours. What does 24 mean? Extreme oversold condition, buying momentum almost exhausted.

RSI falling below 30 isn’t necessarily bad; it often signals the start of a major rebound.

On one side:

ETF net inflows for two months, institutions buying at 80k

Bitcoin DeFi landing, new yield-generating scenarios

Daily breakout of the downtrend line, technical structure turning bullish

Average historical May gain is positive

On the other side:

RSI plunging from 58 to 24, buying power nearly gone

MicroStrategy lost $12.5 billion, market worries about it selling coins

In a high-interest-rate environment, the Fed has only a 3% chance of cutting rates in June

Geopolitical conflicts could erupt at any time

Key level: 80k — the last bottom line for bulls and bears.

Resistance above: 81,400-82k → 88k-90k

Support below: 79k → 76k (April low + 200-week moving average)

Short-term traders:

Wait for a pullback to 79,000-79,500 before entering, with a stop loss at 78k (daily level), first target 81,400-82k. Break above 82k with volume to add positions, aiming for 88k-90k. Don’t chase; at this level, chasing with RSI at 24 could lead to a painful washout.

Swing traders:

Build positions gradually in the 79k-80k range, with a stop loss at 76,500, target 88k-90k. No volume, no chase, no add. ETF inflows for five consecutive days are your signal to add.

Long-term believers:

Invest blindly below 80k. Place layered orders at 78k, 76k, 74k. Target 100k-120k by the end of 2026, betting on the halving cycle + ETF continuous inflows + Bitcoin DeFi explosion.

If 82k can’t hold, don’t get excited; if 76k can’t hold, exit first.

BTC now is like the market at the end of 2023 —
99% of people think “it still has to fall,” but institutions bought heavily below $30k for half a year, then shot straight up to $70k.

80k isn’t the top; it’s a relay station for a new cycle. But the premise is: you can hold it, and don’t cut losses when RSI hits 24.