Been watching the coffee market take a beating lately, and honestly the Brazil situation explains a lot of it. After those dry spell concerns eased out, we started seeing some serious rain in Minas Gerais back in early February - way above average actually - and that shifted the whole outlook for this year's crop. Arabica and robusta both got hit hard when the data came out.

What's been weighing on prices the most is the production forecast. Brazil's looking at a massive harvest for 2026, with arabica production jumping over 23% year-over-year to 44.1 million bags. That's huge. On top of that, Vietnam keeps flooding the market with robusta exports - they shipped out nearly 200k metric tons in January alone, up almost 40% from last year. When you've got that kind of supply coming from the world's biggest robusta producer, prices just can't catch a bid.

There are a few things keeping prices from falling even harder though. Colombia's production tanked - down 34% year-over-year - so that's tightening things on the arabica side. And Brazil's actually exporting less right now, which is interesting given the crop outlook. The USDA's projecting world production will hit a record 178 million bags this season, but with ending stocks expected to drop, there's at least some floor under the market.

The inventory recovery is another headwind. ICE arabica stocks bounced back to a 3-month high in early January, and robusta did the same in late January. That's not helping sentiment either. Overall, it feels like coffee's stuck in a bearish setup with Brazil and Vietnam's supplies keeping the pressure on.