Been thinking about what could actually move Nvidia stock this year, and I think there's something most people are sleeping on.

Look, the company's been on an absolute tear - nearly 900% up over three years. But here's the thing: that kind of run creates this weird exhaustion effect. Even when Nvidia keeps crushing earnings and beating guidance by 1-3 billion each quarter, the market barely reacts anymore. It's like people are just numb to the wins at this point.

My prediction for Nvidia in 2026? They're going to keep doing what they've been doing - beating expectations - and that could actually reignite some momentum.

The reason I'm fairly confident in this prediction for their performance is pretty straightforward. First, China. The company got regulatory clearance to sell H200 chips there, but that hasn't been baked into their guidance yet. Jensen Huang is apparently heading to China soon, and if they get the green light to operate there again, that's a whole new revenue stream they haven't even factored in. Even without China though, data center spending isn't slowing down like everyone thought it would. The AI infrastructure buildout is still in full swing.

So here's my prediction for what happens: they beat the 65 billion guidance they gave for Q4, and then they keep raising and beating guidance throughout 2026. Each quarter another small surprise to the upside. That's the pattern that's been working.

The market's got Nvidia fatigue, sure. But I think if they keep executing like this, the stock could find its footing again. Sometimes the best prediction for stock performance is just watching whether a company keeps doing what it's been doing - and Nvidia's track record on that front is pretty hard to argue with.