Caught something interesting in the cocoa market today. NY cocoa futures up almost 1% and London cocoa jumping 2.6% - and it's because Ivory Coast shipments are coming in smaller than expected. The data shows farmers only moved 1.23 million metric tons to ports since October, down about 4.7% year-over-year. That's triggering some short covering in the futures.

But here's the thing - the broader picture for cocoa prices is still pretty bearish. Global supplies are sitting at record levels, demand has been weak as chocolate makers struggle with high cocoa costs, and the grinding reports show people just aren't buying. Barry Callebaut reported a 22% drop in cocoa division sales volume last quarter, citing weak demand. European grindings fell 8.3% year-over-year, the worst Q4 in 12 years. Even US inventories have been building back up.

The supply outlook is tightening though. Nigeria's production is expected to fall 11% this season, and there's talk of better growing conditions in West Africa pushing up the next harvest. StoneX is forecasting a 287,000 metric ton surplus for this season, which is tighter than some earlier estimates. Cocoa prices have some support on the supply side, but demand weakness is still the bigger story right now. The market's basically caught between tightening supplies and consumers who don't want to pay these prices for chocolate.