Just been looking at Joby Aviation and honestly, I'm not convinced this is yesterday's news, but I'm also not convinced it's tomorrow's either.

So here's the situation: The company's making real progress on the regulatory front. They ran hundreds of test flights last year and are moving into pilot simulator training now. That's legitimately important stuff if you believe in the air taxi concept. But there's a massive gap between cool technology and actual profitability.

The numbers tell the story. Joby burned through $1.01 per share in losses over the first nine months of 2025, nearly double the $0.53 they lost in the same period the year before. We're talking about a company that's still in early development mode, so continued heavy losses aren't shocking. But they're also not nothing.

Here's what's bugging me though - the dilution issue. They just announced a $600 million convertible notes offering plus 52.8 million new shares. I get it, startups need cash to grow. That's literally why Joby went public in the first place. But every new share issued waters down what existing shareholders own. The stock's already down nearly 50% from its 52-week peak, and this kind of capital raise typically puts more pressure on the price.

The air taxi concept itself? That's not yesterday's news. Flying over traffic instead of sitting in it could genuinely be transformative, especially if autonomous operations become viable. But getting from point A to point B - from expensive R&D to sustainable profits - that's going to be long, expensive, and uncertain.

Wall Street seems to have adopted a "prove it to us" stance right now. Joby needs to hit more milestones before the market gets excited again. For most retail investors, I'd honestly say waiting until there's more visibility on profitability makes more sense than trying to catch the falling knife here. If this works out, it's probably a multi-year play anyway, not a one-shot opportunity.