Just noticed sugar prices are getting absolutely undercut by oversupply concerns. Both NY and London contracts have been sliding hard lately - NY hit a 2.5-month low while London dropped to a 5-year low. The whole market's basically pricing in massive global surpluses for the next couple of years.

What's driving this? Brazil's ramping up production to record levels, India's flooding the market with exports after their government lifted restrictions, and even Thailand's increasing output. I've been watching the forecasts from various analysts, and they're all pointing to similar stories - somewhere between 2-9 MMT of global surplus depending on who you ask. The USDA's calling for 189 million MT of global production in 2025/26, which would be a record. Meanwhile, demand growth is only expected around 1.4%, so you've got classic supply-demand imbalance.

India's situation is particularly interesting because they're the second-largest producer and they're actively trying to export more to clear domestic inventory. They went from a quota system to allowing 1.5 MMT of exports this season. That's a significant shift and it's basically undercut any price support we might have seen.

The only potential relief I'm seeing is that some forecasters think production will cool off in 2026/27 as weak prices discourage new planting. Brazil's expected to drop to 41.8 MMT from 43.5 MMT. But that's still pretty far out and the market's clearly focused on the near-term surplus picture right now. Hard to see prices getting much support until we actually see production start declining.