Just caught something interesting in the gold market today. After two rough days, prices bounced back over 1% to hit around $4,767 an ounce. The move makes sense given Trump just extended that US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely, which at least buys some breathing room for peace talks.

Spot gold climbed 0.9% to $4,763.66 while futures jumped 1.3% to $4,782.21. Silver was even stronger, popping 2.4% to $78.53. Platinum and palladium followed suit. So we're seeing some broad precious metals strength across the board.

But here's the thing - the Middle East situation is still pretty fragile. The Strait of Hormuz remains shut down. Iran says it won't reopen it as long as the US keeps its naval blockade in place. And those peace talks that were supposed to happen Tuesday? They fell through at the last second. VP Vance canceled his trip to Islamabad after Iran bailed on negotiations. So the ceasefire extension is good optics, but the underlying tension hasn't really gone away.

What's actually weighing on gold prices more right now is Fed policy. Kevin Warsh, Trump's pick to run the Federal Reserve, testified before the Senate Banking Committee and basically said don't expect rate cuts from him. The guy made it crystal clear he won't commit to lowering rates. Markets are reading him as pretty hawkish, which means rates could stay elevated for a while. That's never good for gold since it doesn't throw off interest or dividends.

Since this Iran conflict kicked off back in late February, gold has actually dropped around 10% overall. It's been bouncing around between $4,700 and $4,900 an ounce, pretty much range-bound. Most analysts think the market has already priced in the geopolitical risk we're seeing now. You'd need either a serious escalation or some major economic shift to really move the needle on gold price news in either direction.

The dollar weakened slightly today, down 0.3%, which did help make gold a bit cheaper for international buyers. Oil also pulled back with Brent crude hovering near $100. Interesting thing I've noticed is that gold has been trading more like risk assets such as stocks lately rather than acting like the traditional safe haven it usually is. It's been reacting to each headline and development in the conflict rather than doing what you'd normally expect.

Looking ahead, Powell is expected to stick around as Fed chair past May 15, especially if Congress drags out the Warsh confirmation. That timing could matter for the gold market depending on how things shake out politically.