Just caught ON Semiconductor hitting fresh territory this week—stock broke through $99.64 for a new 52-week peak. That's a 145% climb over the past year, and the momentum's clearly shifted after what looked like a brutal downturn.

The catalyst? B. Riley's Craig Ellis basically went all-in. He flipped ON stock from Neutral to Buy and nearly doubled the price target from $64 to $115. Ellis is betting the cyclical trough is actually behind us now. His reasoning makes sense: the company's positioned in power semiconductors, silicon carbide for EVs, and industrial automation—all areas that should benefit from the recovery wave. BofA also jumped on the buy signal recently, highlighting the Treo product line, AI capabilities, and a fresh $6 billion buyback authorization.

What's interesting is the supply side. Baird data shows MOSFET lead times across the industry are averaging 25 weeks, but ON's MOSFETs specifically are stretching to 26 weeks. That's not a problem—it's actually a signal that demand is outpacing supply. When that happens, pricing power typically improves, which would help margins bounce back from that 38% non-GAAP gross margin low.

Looking at the numbers: full-year 2025 came in at $5.995B revenue (down 15% YoY), but free cash flow hit a record $1.418B. Q1 2026 guidance suggested stabilization with revenue forecast between $1.435B and $1.535B. The forward P/E sits around 31x, which reflects the earnings recovery the bulls are pricing in. Consensus is split though—11 Buy ratings against 23 Holds, and some valuation models are flagging ON stock as stretched relative to fair value.

There are headwinds worth noting. Heavy exposure to automotive and China markets creates concentration risk. CFO selling activity in April also raised some eyebrows about insider conviction.

With earnings now in the rearview, the real test was whether that stabilization story actually held. The setup looked compelling on paper, but execution is everything in semiconductors. Definitely one to keep tracking if you're looking at the chip sector recovery play.