Accurately predicting gold prices is highly challenging. Its future direction is mainly affected by the interplay of three major factors: geopolitical situations, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, and global central banks’ gold-buying behavior.

As of today (May 9), international spot gold prices are consolidating in the $4,700 - $4,750 per ounce range. Below is the latest market forecast information for the end of June as of early May:

📊 Institutional forecast summary

· Morgan Stanley: target $5,200. Believes that if rate-cut expectations heat up again in the future, it will provide upside room for gold, taking a relatively cautiously optimistic stance.
· Goldman Sachs: year-end target $5,400 (not June 30). Optimistic about central banks’ structural gold-buying demand, which provides dynamic medium- to long-term support for gold prices.
· UBS Group: target $6,200 by the end of June. Very clear bullish stance, emphasizing that geopolitical risks and the Fed’s easing cycle provide support.
· JPMorgan Chase: year-end target $6,300. One of the most aggressive forecasts currently.

🗳️ Forecast market probabilities

Polymarket data shows that the market expects a 51% probability that the gold price will be higher than $5,000 by the end of June, and a 68% probability that it will be higher than $4,900. This reflects an overall bullish outlook. The mainstream view is that there is still upside room from current levels.

💡 Core drivers and risks

The direction of gold prices mainly depends on the outcome of the following three areas of game-theory interaction:

· Geopolitical conflicts (U.S.-Iran relations): Gold’s safe-haven attribute is currently constrained by inflation concerns triggered by high oil prices. If the situation eases, gold may fluctuate; if tensions remain tense, it could push gold prices higher, though the rally may be limited.
· Federal Reserve policy: Rate-cut expectations are the core driver of gold prices. Most institutions believe rate cuts may occur in 2027. If rate-cut signals become clear, it will be favorable for gold.
· Ongoing central bank gold purchases and investment demand: Continuous net buying by global central banks provides structural support. If both geopolitical and rate-cut expectations are favorable at the same time, gold’s upside momentum could be very strong.

Overall, mainstream institutions and forecast markets generally expect gold to remain strong through before the end of June. The mainstream target range is highly concentrated between $4,900 - $5,200 per ounce, though there are also higher targets above $6,000 such as UBS.

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