SEI drops over 95%, so why can't it break through 0.1?

Recently, I've been watching SEI's market action, and it's quite interesting. Although Bitcoin is around $71,000 and Ethereum is near $2,200, SEI is still struggling at the bottom. From a historical high of $1.14 down to now $0.07, the decline is astonishing. Currently, the market price is swinging along the lower edge of the demand zone, with no signs of reversal, so the space for new entries is indeed limited.

What’s even more heartbreaking is the fundamentals. Although SEI’s market cap rebounded in 2025, the token price is still falling, indicating a structural problem behind it: supply is expanding wildly while demand is shrinking. Circulating supply has increased from 3 billion to 7 billion, and this dilution effect directly crushes any rebound. Market cap has grown, but the price has fallen—that’s a classic false growth: it looks like the project is appreciating, but in reality, the token is depreciating.

Looking at unlocking pressure. SEI’s total supply is 10 billion tokens, with 1.5-2% of new tokens released each month. This plan will continue beyond 2032, meaning the selling pressure is not a short-term issue but a long-term structural burden. Every rebound faces continuous selling pressure, making it hard to break out.

Demand is even more concerning. TVL has fallen from $600 million to $40-60 million, daily trading fees from $368 down to single digits, and DEX trading volume is only about $9-10 million. Basically, the funds that entered during the incentive period all ran away once rewards decreased. Now, with increasing supply and decreasing demand, the price can’t possibly rise.

The technical side also shows no bright spots. Since the high point in March 2024, SEI has been in a downward trend with lower lows, and each rebound has been knocked back. It’s now stuck in a descending wedge; once support is broken, it will continue to fall. To truly reverse, it needs to break above the previous support of $0.24–$0.27 before considering higher levels.

So, can the price reach 0.1? Based on the current circulating supply of 7 billion, 0.1 corresponds to a market cap of $700 million. Considering future unlocks, it might need a valuation of around $750–$800 million. From the current $470 million market cap, that’s a 1.5–1.7x increase—possible in theory, but only if several key changes happen simultaneously: TVL and trading volume truly recover (not just short-term incentives); sustained unlocking pressure is met with enough buy-side demand; and the price structure improves, at least stabilizing above the $0.08–$0.1 range. Otherwise, even if it rises to 0.1, subsequent unlocks will push the price down again. It all depends on whether these fundamentals can truly turn around.