U.S. April Non-Farm Payrolls Increase by 115k, Far Exceeding Expectations; Federal Reserve Policy Shift Window Forced to Be Postponed

U.S. non-farm employment surged by 115k in April, nearly double the market consensus of 62k, demonstrating strong resilience in the labor market.

This report not only features impressive monthly data but also includes revisions to previous figures. March’s non-farm payrolls were revised upward from an initial increase of 178k to 185k; February’s data was revised downward from a decrease of 133k to a decrease of 156k. After revisions, the combined employment figures for February and March are 16k lower than previously reported.

Against the backdrop of volatile crude oil prices and ongoing military conflicts in the Strait of Hormuz, the labor market did not weaken as market concerns suggested; instead, it remained solid. Current inflation expectations stand at 3.64%, and combined with this strong non-farm report, market bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June have been completely dashed.

Analysts point out that the future policy shift window for the Federal Reserve will now depend entirely on whether an Iran nuclear deal can be reached and how the geopolitical situation evolves.

From an industry perspective, employment in healthcare, transportation and warehousing, and retail sectors increased in April, becoming the main drivers of job growth; meanwhile, federal government employment continued to decline, decreasing by 8,000 this month. Private sector employment performed strongly, adding 123k jobs, surpassing the expected 75k.

In terms of wages, the average hourly wage in April rose by 0.2% month-over-month, slightly below the expected 0.3%; the average weekly hours worked were 34.3, higher than the expected 34.2 hours. The April unemployment rate was 4.3%, in line with market expectations and unchanged from the previous month.

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(Source: Xinhua Finance)