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*The retail investors who can really hold on are back.* -5.8 Review
Today, all three major indices closed in the red. Even the big index was mainly characterized by weak, choppy trading during the day—everything felt listless. But overall, the market today was not weaker; it was actually more active. The number of advancing stocks in the overall market was even slightly higher than yesterday. Meanwhile, the number of stocks hitting the limit-up was basically unchanged. The reason for this was that today the tech “big weights” were weak and showed divergence, which weighed on the main index. In the overall market, small- and mid-cap stocks were not affected; instead, funds flowed out of the “big weights” and went into small- and mid-cap stocks. For market participants, whether the index is strong or weak is not important—if you can happily “eat meat,” that’s a good thing. As for the main index today, it has still been trading in a benign range. I remain confident and still look favorably on the idea that the index will continue to attempt a breakout upward after the consolidation. [Taoguba]
Today’s trend market has quite a bit of divergence, but overall it’s still healthy. The main reason is that most of the trend stocks are currently in the tech sector. Today, the decline and adjustment of the tech “big weights” caused other tech trend stocks to follow with divergence, which made the trend look not strong today. In fact, trend stocks are essentially just up and down—moving, pausing, then resuming—which is a normal pattern and doesn’t affect the continuation of the trend. Today, the trend market did not extend yesterday’s acceleration behavior among trend stocks, so the current trend is not in the acceleration phase yet.
Right now, this short-term setup is really impossible to trade. Yesterday’s Jin Tanglang (praying mantis) looked very strong, but today at the open it got nuked with a floor-price limit—what a disaster. Even though that opening was crazy, the short-term market hasn’t truly gone “mentally unstable.” Also, the market is currently rarely triggering cut-losses; in general, you can still reduce losses. The biggest problem in the short-term market right now is simply that there is no follow-through (relay) capital—everyone is being very crafty. It’s “buy the board today and smash it tomorrow.” The short-term upside is also tightly capped at four limit-ups, which is why most stocks hitting limit-up right now are basically only at their first limit-up; only at the “1-to-2” stage is there still capital willing to relay. Sigh—this short-term market is really hard.
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Market situation today:
All three major indices showed weak, choppy trading throughout the day. The Shanghai Composite fell 0.00 to 4179.95. The Shenzhen Component fell 0.58% to 15563.80 points. The ChiNext Index fell 0.96% to 3796.13 points. The total turnover of the two markets was 304.85 billion yuan, which was a contraction of 95.4 billion yuan versus the previous trading day. In terms of today’s themes, the more active sectors included robotics, communications, commercial aerospace, computing power, lithium batteries, and chip semiconductors.
Market summary: The whole market saw broad-based gains, with a clear “money-making effect.” My trend account is still kept fully invested. Today I only did a bit of T (trading around positions) and adjusted my position sizing. My holding philosophy is as always to diversify and spread out the layout. This kind of layout is certainly not the best, but it should be the optimal combination model, because the safety, stability, and flexibility are the best. I am extremely firm and remain bullish with unwavering conviction on this big trend driven by institutions. As for my short-term account, at the close today I opened a position at 50% in the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE). Because these continuous unusual moves are very obvious, I’ll first hold some base positions. If the BSE shows strength next week, then I’ll go all in and make a big push.
Thoughts and plans will be posted in the comments on Monday morning.
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High-emotion high-stock area (7):
Fuda Alloy - Data Center, 4 consecutive limit-ups,
Lidao New Material - Lithium battery, 5 days and 4 limit-ups,
Guidance-Way Shares - Delisting removal + satellite navigation, 3 consecutive limit-ups,
Runjian Shares - Computing power, 4 days and 3 limit-ups,
Datang Power Generation - Power sector, 3 consecutive limit-ups,
Daye Shares - Robotics + commercial aerospace, 3 consecutive limit-ups,
Hangdian Shares - Optical fiber concept + power sector, 3 consecutive limit-ups,
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Promotion to second-limit-up area (14):
(1) Hongchuan Wisdom - Computing power, 2 consecutive limit-ups,
(2) Nanwei Software - Computing power leasing, 2 consecutive limit-ups,
(3) Dayi Technology - Computing power leasing, 3 days and 2 limit-ups,
(4) Julun Intelligent - Robotics, 2 consecutive limit-ups,
(5) Beitou Technology - AI applications + robotics, 2 consecutive limit-ups,
(6) Taijing Technology - Optical modules + robotics, 2 consecutive limit-ups,
(7) Tongding Internet - Optical fiber concept, 2 consecutive limit-ups,
(8) Xineng Taishan - Optical fiber concept, 2 consecutive limit-ups,
(9) Hongban Technology - PCB, 2 consecutive limit-ups,
(10) Baoding Technology - PCB, 2 consecutive limit-ups,
(11) Gongda Electroacoustics - Chips, 2 consecutive limit-ups,
(12) Shandong Glass Fiber - Glass fiber, 2 consecutive limit-ups,
(13) Hansheng Pharmaceutical - Innovative drugs, 2 consecutive limit-ups,
(14) Sanxiang Impression - Share transfer, 3 days and 2 limit-ups,
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Thanks to @Eight Morning @Jizhong Aviator @Board-Setting Little Shrimp @Little Green Apple @Jiaoye @Schrödinger’s Cat08 @Silent summerwind, brothers, for the rewards and support
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Thanks to all the real folks for your likes and comments—thank you for your support all the way.
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Statement: My views are only personal ideas and records, and do not constitute any investment advice. Keep a good mindset, and may the stock market bring a long rainbow.