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CLARITY Act Passes Senate: Dawn Ahead but Uncertainty Remains

On May 14, 2026, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold a key vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act), a legislation process that has been closely watched by the global crypto industry, finally reaching a crossroads. Based on current developments and core disputes, the probability of the bill passing the committee stage is about 70%, but the final legislative process and implementation still face multiple uncertainties.

Bright Outlook: 70% Chance of Passage

1. Compromise Clears Major Hurdles: The stablecoin reward provisions led by Republican Senator Tom Tillis and Democratic Senator Angela Alsobrooks have been settled—prohibiting interest payments on idle stablecoin holdings similar to bank deposits, but allowing rewards for active use cases like payments and transfers. This plan balances banking concerns over deposit loss with the crypto industry’s key demands. Giants like Coinbase have publicly supported it, injecting strong momentum into the bill.

2. Market Confidence Significantly Boosted: Prediction platforms show the probability of the bill becoming law in 2026 has surged from below 50% to 67%, with a 21% increase in 24 hours, reflecting market optimism about a short-term breakthrough. Committee Chair Tim Scott has explicitly scheduled the vote for May 14, marking the legislative process entering its final sprint.

3. Time Window Still Open: Although some analyses warned that failure to pass the committee by the end of April would sharply reduce chances, the current vote is only two weeks delayed from the original deadline. The crypto industry is actively lobbying to pass legislation before the mid-term elections in November to avoid uncertainties if Democrats take control of the House.

Underlying Risks: 30% Failure Risk

If the vote fails, the main resistance will focus on three areas:

1. Final Push from Banking Sector: Banking trade organizations are still lobbying Republican lawmakers, arguing that the compromise provisions give crypto firms too much freedom, potentially threatening financial stability. For example, JPMorgan and other institutions warn of capital outflow risks and are trying to sway key votes in the committee.

2. Democratic Party Divisions: Many Democratic lawmakers insist that the bill’s anti-money laundering provisions are weak and do not effectively address conflicts of interest involving politicians and cryptocurrencies. The bill needs support from at least seven Democrats to pass the full chamber, but current party consensus is lacking, which could hinder the committee vote.

3. Technical Snags: Besides the stablecoin dispute, disagreements remain over DeFi regulation, SEC jurisdiction, and other secondary issues. If opponents delay the vote over procedural issues, the bill might miss the full chamber review window in May, risking collapse due to the approaching mid-term elections.

Future Path: From Committee to the President’s Desk

If the vote on the 14th passes (high probability scenario), the bill will proceed to a full Senate vote, requiring bipartisan support to match the version passed by the House in 2025, and ultimately be sent to the President for signing. Trump’s friendly stance toward crypto (such as promising a “cryptocurrency president” policy) could increase the likelihood of enactment. Conversely, if it fails, the bill may be shelved until 2027, plunging the industry back into regulatory ambiguity.