The night before Non-Farm Payrolls, the whole internet is waiting for one number: Can BTC still survive?

Tonight's Non-Farm Payrolls might be more exciting than many people's exes replying to messages.
The market has already entered a "madness phase":
During the day, discussing Middle East wars; at night, studying US employment; in the early morning, watching BTC spike.
After the escalation of US-Iran conflicts, the most direct market reaction is:
"Risk assets are fleeing!"
But the problem is, today's BTC is no longer the BTC of 2017.
It used to be retail gambling, now it's backed by Wall Street ETF institutions.
What are institutions most afraid of?
Uncertainty.
War is uncertainty, inflation is uncertainty, Powell is even more uncertainty.
So recent BTC declines are not because it’s weak, but because everyone is withdrawing cash to hedge risks first.
If tonight’s non-farm data is weak, it will directly stimulate the market to bet on rate cuts again. Then:
The dollar falls;
Risk assets rise;
BTC rebounds.
But if the data continues to be strong, the market will realize one thing:
"Powell can keep delaying."
Then BTC might still have to take more hits in the short term.
However, I think around $80k is already a very sensitive level for institutions.
ETF funds won't easily let the market collapse completely.
What to really watch out for is:
If the Middle East situation continues to escalate, global risk aversion will suppress risk markets for a long time.
One sentence:
Now, BTC is not fighting against bears,
It’s fighting for its life against the global macro environment.#Polymarket每日热点