#Polymarket每日热点 How high can NVIDIA go by May 2026? My analysis and forecast

Last night I saw NVIDIA rise another 2.85%, closing at $227.08, with a market value surpassing $5.5 trillion, truly shocking. This number has already exceeded the total market capitalization of the Indian stock market and is approaching Germany's GDP. The AI "money-consuming beast" is still racing wildly.

My core view:
By May 2026, NVIDIA's stock price is likely to fall within the $280~$320 range, corresponding to a market value of about $6.8 trillion~$7.8 trillion. I am more inclined to bet on the $300~$349 level.

Three key logics:

1. Performance inertia remains strong
Blackwell Ultra (B300) is expected to ramp up volume by the end of 2025 to early 2026, with the ASP of each AI chip possibly increasing by another 20%. As long as Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Tesla do not cut capital expenditures, data center revenue for the 2026 fiscal year can still maintain a growth rate of 20%~30%.
2. There are two risk points, but no collapse
· Customer self-developed chips (ASIC): In 2026, some inference markets will be diverted, but training and ecosystems will still rely on CUDA.
· Export restrictions: If further tightening of exports of H200/B200 to the Middle East and Southeast Asia occurs, it may impact 5%~8% of revenue.
These two points will suppress valuation multiples (PE from 35x back to 28~30x), but will not reverse EPS growth.
3. Historical projection
From May 2024 to May 2025, NVIDIA increased about 120% (from 90 to over 200). Even if the growth rate halves, a 40%~50% increase from 2025 to 2026 is reasonable. $280 corresponds to an annualized return of about 23%, which aligns with the "normal speed after a surge."