#Gate广场五月交易分享 #TradFi交易分享挑战 Analysis of Spot Gold (XAU) on May 15, 2026

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1. Price Dynamics and Market Structure
Before the European session on May 15, spot gold (XAU/USD) once fell over 2% to around $4,560, continuing a four-day decline. As of the Asian session on the 15th, gold has broken below $4,620, with the current quote approximately $4,621 per ounce. On the technical side, the daily chart pivot point (PP) is at $4,671.7, with resistance and support zones covering $4,550.72–$4,773.26; key support below is at the strong support band of $4,570–$4,580 and at $4,560. If these levels are broken, further correction space will open.
2. Core Driving Factors
1. Hawkish expectations fully fermented, rate cut expectations nearly zero
US April CPI and PPI data continued to rise beyond expectations, combined with Middle East conflicts pushing energy prices higher. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut have basically disappeared, even beginning to price in possible rate hikes. TD Securities no longer expects a rate cut in 2026, shifting to a view that interest rates will remain stable. The CME Fed Watch tool shows the probability of a rate cut in June is less than 6%, with actual rate cut expectations delayed until late 2027 or early 2028.
2. Strong dollar suppresses gold valuation
The US dollar index has recently regained upward momentum, currently around 98.10. The strengthening dollar is the core driver behind gold’s break below key levels, directly intensifying the valuation pressure on gold.
3. Fed leadership change increases uncertainty
The US Senate confirmed Waller as Fed Chair with a vote of 54 to 45. Waller has been consistently critical of quantitative easing, and the independence of the Federal Reserve and future policy paths face new uncertainties. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged until July exceeds 90%.
4. Concerns about inflation and stagflation coexist
High oil prices increase the risk of US stagflation. Markets worry that the Fed and other central banks may be forced to raise interest rates, weakening gold’s traditional inflation hedge function. In the short term, funds prefer holding strong dollar and high-yield currencies for risk aversion.
5. ETF funds buy on dips, institutions are not pessimistic
Despite the continuous decline in prices, the world’s largest gold ETF—the SPDR Gold Trust—has increased its holdings for several consecutive trading days, reaching 1,039.993 tons on May 13, indicating institutional funds are accumulating on dips. As of May 14, holdings remained steady at 1,039.99 tons.
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3. Institutional Views and Long-term Consensus
Several Wall Street giants maintain a positive outlook for gold in 2026. Goldman Sachs expects the gold price to reach $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026 and believes the Fed will cut rates by about 50 basis points, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. JPMorgan is even more optimistic, forecasting a year-end price of $6,300 per ounce. Overall, institutions have shifted from a "real interest rate pricing" framework to a "global monetary system risk pricing" framework, viewing the $4,500 level as a key medium- to long-term allocation bottom zone.
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4. Overall Assessment
Currently, gold is in a stage of typical "macroeconomic short-term suppression" versus "long-term structural bullishness" competition:
· Short-term (1-4 weeks): The strengthening dollar and hawkish expectations form double suppression, with gold still in a bottoming and consolidation phase. Key support is in the $4,550–$4,600 range; if broken, it could test around $4,400. On the upside, the resistance zone is at $4,670–$4,700.
· Medium to long-term (6-12 months): Diminished US fiscal discipline, continued central bank gold purchases (244 tons in Q1 2026 globally), and hedging stagflation needs provide solid underlying support. As Waller’s policy path becomes clearer, if the Fed shifts toward rate cuts, gold may usher in a new trend. Historically, when rate cut expectations reignite, gold tends to outperform most asset classes. For strategic allocators, current levels are suitable for phased positioning, but short-term traders should wait for clear stabilization signals before entering.