May 17 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

News:
U.S. inflation data (PPI/CPI) higher than expected, pushing up U.S. bond yields, putting pressure on risk assets. The stock market (such as the S&P 500) declined, combined with other factors, causing BTC to fall below $80,000 around May 15, triggering a large number of long liquidations (about $581 million, BTC dominant).

The CLARITY Act advancing in the Senate is a positive development, but it did not immediately boost prices. The strategy plans to buy back debt, possibly financed by selling BTC, increasing potential supply pressure.

The Fear & Greed Index is in the Fear zone, indicating short-term risk appetite is low, but the long-term institutional trend remains unchanged.

Capital:
Last week, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw net outflows of about $1 billion (around 14,000 BTC), ending six consecutive weeks of inflows, marking the largest weekly outflow in months. Led by BlackRock IBIT and others, with about $290 million outflow on Friday alone. This directly dragged down prices, reflecting short-term profit-taking or risk aversion by institutions.

On-chain data shows exchange balances continue to decline (long-term positive for supply contraction), with whales accumulating at low levels, with realized profits turning positive. Retail participation remains neutral, with institutions still the main drivers. Perpetual contract funding rates are low, possibly creating conditions for long squeeze.

Technical:
As mentioned yesterday, the downward trend still persists. Currently, the focus is on repairing the levels below the daily chart. The high-level short positions on the daily chart are not yet fixed. Below the four-hour level, the trend is downward with weak rebounds. Today, the main movements are consolidation and downward correction. There may be a short-term rebound on the 15-minute chart, but with limited strength. Next, watch the support at 77,200.
Support: 77,200-76,500
Resistance: 78,600-79,300