#TradFi交易分享挑战

The USD/JPY exchange rate in the second quarter of 2026 is right at the forefront of the global divergence in monetary policy, becoming one of the most watched currency pairs in the foreign exchange market. The current core trading logic behind USDJPY is still firmly anchored in the differences in the policy paths of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve, but recent market expectations are undergoing subtle yet critical changes.

From the US side, since the Fed launched its rate-cut cycle at the end of last year, the latest inflation data has, however, shown unsettling stickiness. The decline speed in the core PCE price index is far slower than expected; the labor market remains strong; and wage growth is still maintained at a relatively high level. This has led the market to trim the pricing of how many rate cuts could be made within the year—from three times at the start of the year down to two times or even fewer. The dollar has therefore received support, and the dollar index has regained and held above 103. As long as the US economy does not rapidly lose momentum, the interest-rate differential advantage will remain a powerful weapon for dollar bulls.

In Japan’s case, things are even more complicated. The Bank of Japan finally bid farewell to the era of negative interest rates last year, completing a historic policy shift, but the subsequent pace of rate hikes has been unusually cautious. In his recent remarks, Governor Ueda Ueno repeatedly emphasized that it is necessary to confirm that inflation can stabilize above the 2% target before considering further adjustments to interest rates. Japan’s domestic consumption recovery is not yet solid; real wage growth has just turned positive. If the BOJ were to raise rates impulsively, it could cut off the hard-won momentum of economic improvement. This dovish posture has repeatedly dashed yen appreciation expectations; after USDJPY dropped into the 140 range, it was quickly lifted by buy-side demand, and is now back to the vicinity of the 150 level, oscillating.

However, the 150 level has special policy sensitivity for the BOJ and the Ministry of Finance. Looking back over the past two years, whenever USDJPY approached or broke through the 152 level, Japanese authorities would carry out direct verbal interventions and even actual FX market interventions. Finance Ministry officials have already warned multiple times that if the exchange rate experiences excessive one-sided volatility, “appropriate action” will be taken. To a certain extent, this policy red line sets an invisible ceiling on USDJPY’s upside potential, but at the same time it also provides a relatively safe reference coordinate for carry trades that bet against the yen. Traders tend to buy below 150 and close or reduce positions near 152, forming a short-term trading range with a high win rate.

On the technical front, the USDJPY daily chart shows a clearly defined upward channel structure. The lower boundary of the channel is formed by connecting several staged swing lows since March, while the upper boundary is near 152. The moving average system is bullishly diverging, and the MACD has been running continuously above the zero line, indicating an overall bullish trend. However, the RSI is already above 65 and nearing the overbought area, suggesting that a short-term technical pullback may be needed. The key support below is around 147.50; if that level is lost, the trend could weaken. If price can effectively break above 152 and receive tacit approval from the Japanese authorities, it could open up room for a new round of upward movement.

For traders, it is currently more suitable to look for long entries near the channel’s lower boundary, with a stop-loss set below 146 and targets focused on the 151–152 area. But it is also necessary to closely watch for any hawkish signals from the BOJ and any unexpected weakening in US economic data, as these could become catalysts for a USDJPY trend reversal. Do you think the yen still has a chance to appreciate significantly this year? Feel free to share your views in the comments section.
$USDJPY ‌