#Polymarket百U战神挑战 Gate Polymarket Practical Evaluation Process

Step 1: Event Screening
While browsing Gate Polymarket, focus on:
Events related to your professional field (cryptocurrency, technology)
Moderate trading volume ($10K–$500K) — enough liquidity but not fully efficient pricing
Settlement time 1–4 weeks — has time value but not too long

Step 2: Quick Assessment (5 minutes)
For each candidate event, answer:
1. Do I understand the trigger conditions of this event? (Is the settlement standard clear?)
2. Do I have an informational advantage? (Know more or earlier than the market?)
3. Is there a >10% deviation between the current price and my probability estimate?
If all three are "yes" → proceed to in-depth evaluation

Step 3: In-Depth Evaluation (30 minutes)
Gather all relevant information
Construct probability ranges (conservative/base/optimistic)
Calculate Kelly position size (see previous text)
Set entry price, take profit price, stop-loss price
Place a limit order in Gate trading mode

Step 4: Dynamic Adjustment
During the event development:
New information appears → re-evaluate probability → adjust position or close position
Price moves in your favor → consider partial take profit
Price moves against you → check if stop-loss is hit or if your argument is invalid