Lately, I’ve been closely watching the movement of the US dollar and the Japanese yen, and I found that the Bank of Japan hasn’t raised rates again, maintaining the rate for three straight times. The voting ratio changed from 8-1 last time to 6-3 this time, with differences becoming noticeably larger—suggesting that there are indeed differing views within the central bank on tightening policy. At the press conference, the governor sounded fairly hawkish, saying the Bank would raise interest rates according to the state of the economy, but also emphasizing that there is uncertainty in the Middle East, so there’s no rush to hike rates for now and more time is needed to observe.

The USD/JPY is particularly interesting. It has been consolidating below the psychological level of 160, and the high so far has only reached 159.69. Since mid-March, it has been repeatedly oscillating below 160, and market sentiment remains quite bullish. If it can hold steady at 159, there’s a chance it could challenge 160 and even 163 later. On the other hand, if it breaks below 159, be careful—there’s the risk of dipping toward 157.

The EUR/USD has fallen more sharply. It dropped 0.17% yesterday, reaching 1.1686. Technically, downside momentum appears to be strengthening, and the key support to watch in the short term is 1.1670. If it truly breaks below, it could continue toward 1.1600. However, in the medium term, Europe and the US are still trading in a range between 1.1560 and 1.1960, and the rebound trend remains intact.

As for the index, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) finally broke its streak of consecutive gains. It fell 1% yesterday, ending an 18-day rally. It is now in an accelerated upward phase, and short-term gains may still continue, but be alert to the possibility that the current phase top may be coming soon. If it can hold above 10,000, there’s potential to rebound to 11,000 and even 12,300. If it breaks below 10,000, be careful of a pullback to 9,500.

NVIDIA is rising quite strongly. It gained 4% yesterday, set a new high, and reached $216.8. It has broken above the previous range’s high, suggesting that a new upward leg may have begun. I expect it to continue with a pattern of choppy gains; you can watch the mid-May time window. If it can stabilize around $210, there may be an opportunity to challenge $226.