#TradFi交易分享挑战

# The prospects of US-Iran negotiations are bleak
It's the same old script again, will they fight first and then talk?

The US-Iran negotiations have reached a deadlock. Over the weekend, news emerged that the U.S. plans to restart strikes on Iran, causing crypto and gold-silver markets to plummet in panic. Currently, Iran demands the lifting of sanctions, compensation, and recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz; the U.S. demands Iran to surrender highly enriched uranium and retain only one nuclear facility. The core demands of both sides are worlds apart, with no concessions. The little financial expert still maintains the previous view: both sides will fight and talk, bouncing back and forth, to trap retail investors globally in the financial markets. It is highly likely that the U.S. will resume limited strikes on Iran, then both sides will sit down to negotiate again. The financial markets will probably follow this trend:

1. Gold prices will initially decline then rise. In the early stages of conflict escalation, rising oil prices will boost inflation expectations, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s stance to keep interest rates high. The opportunity cost of holding gold increases, causing gold prices to fall. But the market will soon realize that limited strikes are not full-scale war, and with ongoing negotiations expected, gold prices may rebound. Key support level: 4500, a short-term buy zone if reached.

2. Crude oil prices will show pulse-like surges followed by high-level oscillations. If U.S. military strikes threaten Iran’s oil production facilities or the security of the Strait of Hormuz, the market will immediately worry about oil supply disruptions, causing international oil prices to spike. However, since the strikes are limited, Iran is unlikely to completely cut off oil exports, and other oil-producing countries may release additional capacity to fill the gap, preventing uncontrolled price surges. As negotiations heat up, oil prices will stabilize at high levels, awaiting further clarity. Key support: $95, key resistance: $106.

3. The cryptocurrency market will continue to decline and become more volatile. Cryptocurrencies have not yet established a stable safe-haven attribute. Geopolitical conflicts and market panic will drive funds out of high-risk crypto assets into safer traditional assets. Meanwhile, in the environment of high U.S. interest rates, market liquidity tightens, further shrinking the crypto capital pool. If the conflict escalates further, cryptocurrencies may experience a new round of crashes. Only when the situation eases and substantive progress is made in negotiations might a phased rebound occur. Key support: 74,000, key resistance: 78,500. $USDJPY $JPN225 $AUDUSD