To see if the project team is serious about their work, I now focus more on how the treasury is spending: not "how much has been spent," but whether the expenditures align with the milestones. For example, if they need to upgrade the mainnet or develop new features, the money should first go to audits, testing, documentation, and developer support. I can accept a slower pace; what I fear most are those who say they will have a major update next quarter, but the treasury spending is all on marketing, KOLs, and conference travel... Basically, it looks like they're buying hype rather than delivering on their commitments.

Recently, everyone has been explaining all the rises and falls with ETF capital flows and U.S. stock market risk appetite. I also look at those, but they are external signals. Whether the project itself has "completed tasks according to plan," I trust more what I can see on the chain: whether milestones are achieved on time, whether transparency has improved, and whether there has been a review of spending. My approach is simple too: grid trading + batching. When a narrative gets very hot, I wait for it to deliver before adding more.

What I fear most is not missing opportunities, but investing time and trust in a team that keeps telling stories but never submits results.