Lately I've been thinking again, interest rates are really a "slow knife": they don't necessarily cause an immediate crash, but they gradually drain everyone's risk appetite, so those who were confident enough to go all-in start thinking "maybe keep some cash/stablecoins," and then positions become more and more conservative. Honestly, my current approach isn't complicated: when rates are tight, I do less tinkering, extend my holding periods, and wait until sentiment improves to slowly reallocate my portfolio. Low-frequency rebalancing is like putting on a seatbelt for myself.

I also look at on-chain data, but recently there's been talk about the lag in the tagging system, and even the possibility of being misled... It's quite realistic: you think you're seeing the "truth," but maybe you're just seeing what others want you to see. Anyway, I now treat it more as a thermometer, not a navigation tool—don't let a couple of indicators push your positions to extremes.

It's a bit depressing that when macro conditions change, no matter how much narrative you tell in the crypto world, you still have to catch your breath; but there's also some hope—if you don't stubbornly hold on or get caught up, life can still go on. Even if the market gets crazy again, you still need to sleep. That's how I see it for now.