May 24, 2026, summarized into an article

$BTC ‌

78,200 retraced to 74,200
74,200 rebounded to 77,400

First, why did 78,200 fall back to 74,200?
On the evening of May 22:
Wen Si minutes:
If inflation does not subside, then restart rate hikes. The expectation of rate cuts in 2026 has been reduced from three times to once, leading to the drop to 74,200.

On May 23:
Trump stated that he has reached an agreement with Iran, and the low point of 74,200 rebounded to 77,400.

What does Wen Si mean by inflation?
Rising oil prices = rising inflation
Rising inflation = Bitcoin falling

Whether interest rates will be cut depends on whether oil prices fall or not; whether oil prices fall depends on whether the US-Iran war ends.

If Trump insists on starting a war, it wouldn't take so long; he would have already launched the war and wouldn't be talking so much.

Trump is definitely more willing to resolve the US-Iran issue through negotiations.
Lower costs, higher returns, smaller risks, and better for domestic politics.

1. Heavy political baggage: Trump promised to end overseas wars; starting a war would violate campaign promises and risk losing core support.

2. Stabilize oil prices: Avoid turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz causing oil prices to spike, which benefits the US economy and voters.

3. Military risks are high: Iran has missiles and proxy forces that could block the Strait of Hormuz or attack US bases and Israel, triggering a regional full-scale conflict.

War is too dangerous, too costly, and not worthwhile.

Negotiations have lower costs, higher benefits, and controllable risks, plus they can earn political achievements, stabilize oil prices, contain Iran, and please allies.

Currently, there is a 90% chance that there will be no rate hike, and the Federal Reserve is more inclined to cut rates once within this year.
(Unless the US-Iran war escalates, which would cause inflation.)

As long as the US-Iran war does not escalate, the bull market is still ongoing.

Long position: buy in the 75,000–75,500 range, stop loss at 74,200, target 77,000–77,500.

Technical analysis:
Hold steady above 75,000: rebound continues, aiming for 80k.
Break below 74,200: second bottom, aiming for 72k–70k.

Overall, mainly focus on low buy-ins, avoid chasing high, and do not do low-level dips.