The bond market game is more complicated than it seems; war is just the obvious sign, while debt, AI investments, and central bank shifts are the hidden currents.

ME News Report, May 24 (UTC+8),
Although people are deeply concerned about inflation triggered by the war, signs indicate that other factors are also influencing long-term borrowing costs.
In the United States, the so-called "real yield" after stripping out inflation has a greater impact, suggesting that bond investors are worried about more than just price pressures from the Iran war.
Other drivers include: the already large public debt burden potentially expanding further, the impact of the artificial intelligence investment boom, and the increasing likelihood that central banks like the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates rather than cut them.
Strategists at ING, Goldman Sachs, and Barclays all emphasize that a common speculation is: the recent rise in some long-term yields, even if inflation falls back due to rising oil prices, will not be fully reversed.
This means that even if the conflict ends, market borrowing costs may remain near multi-year highs, continuing to pressure governments and the economy. (Jin10)