Trump claims "U.S.-Iran agreement basically reached," will oil prices and Bitcoin rebound?

Over the weekend, Trump suddenly posted on Truth Social, saying the U.S.-Iran peace agreement is "basically agreed upon," and the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.
The market instantly heated up, oil prices plunged, and Bitcoin sharply rebounded from the 75k low to around 77k.
The Iranian official media directly poured cold water: don’t take it seriously, this is Trump’s "publicity needs" and "domestic media consumption."
Both sides are actually still bargaining, especially on nuclear issues and sanctions, and short-term talks are unlikely to succeed.
Impact on crude oil $CL
The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 20% of global oil transportation.
Previously, tensions were high, and oil prices soared.
Now, with peace rumors, geopolitical risk premiums are immediately wiped out, and oil prices start to correct.
Short-term judgment: likely to fluctuate downward.
WTI may approach $95-$98, and if the strait truly opens, prices could slow their decline.
But as long as Iran remains firm, prices will rebound quickly.
Don’t chase the move; the news is too chaotic.
Impact on Bitcoin $BTC
When geopolitical tensions rise, BTC tends to shake along with risk assets.
Once peace expectations emerge, short sellers get liquidated, long positions rush in, and the weekend sees violent surges.
ETH also fluctuates around 2100-2140.
Short-term judgment: oscillating but slightly strong, but avoid FOMO.
Between 75k and 80k, prices fluctuate back and forth; if the move is too aggressive, major players may harvest profits.
Wait for retracements or solid news from negotiations before acting more safely.
Summary in one sentence:
This is a sentiment-driven market fueled by headlines; Trump wants to stabilize the market and suppress oil prices, Iran doesn’t want to appear too soft.
A real agreement is still early; in the short term, whoever plays the news better will have the advantage.
Trading advice: one word—caution.
Peace expectations are positive, but don’t mistake propaganda for an actual deal.