Analysis: The Bitcoin trend model has shifted to bearish, with $76,088 as the main bull-bear dividing line.

PANews May 25 News, according to 10x Research analysis, the Bitcoin trend model has just turned bearish. The current market faces multiple pressures: the "never sell" strategy narrative has shown cracks, Michael Saylor hinted that the company may eventually sell some of its 843k BTC holdings, and since May 7, this shift has triggered a $2.7 billion outflow from ETFs. Bitcoin ETFs saw a total net outflow of $1 billion in May, with $2.7 billion concentrated in the past two weeks, and the outflow rate is accelerating.

On the macro level, inflation is the main risk factor for most Bitcoin investors mispricing. Inflation is negatively correlated with Bitcoin returns, and rising oil prices will still impact CPI data over the next 2 to 3 months. The bond market has fully priced in a rate hike by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year. In terms of market structure, Bitcoin volatility is at the 6% percentile historically, Ethereum volatility is at the 1% percentile, and implied volatility is near historic lows. Funding rates are close to zero, open interest contracts are at the 44% percentile, and trading volume is at the 12% percentile, showing characteristics of low confidence, low leverage, and low liquidity. Ethereum's market cap share has fallen below 10% for the first time since July 2025, and Bitmine shareholders have suffered an $8 billion loss due to betting on ETH.

10x Research pointed out that the main bull-bear dividing line for Bitcoin is $76,088, and its price is currently just above this dividing line. The core relative value position is to go long Bitcoin while shorting Ethereum, with survey and analysis pointing toward Hyperliquid and Zcash for upward momentum.