#TradFi交易分享挑战

Summary of last week's crude oil market trends and outlook for this week

Last week (May 19 - May 25), WTI crude oil showed a pattern of high-level fluctuations and declines, rising near $107 per barrel during the week, then rapidly plunging due to Trump’s release of expectations for US-Iran talks, ultimately closing at $96.60 per barrel, with a weekly decline of over 5%, and a significant unwinding of geopolitical premiums.

Specific trends

At the beginning of the week, supported by consecutive unexpected declines in US crude oil inventories and Cushing storage approaching "tank bottom" levels, oil prices maintained high-level fluctuations, briefly breaking the $107 mark; midweek, Trump suddenly stated that US-Iran negotiations had entered the "final stage," causing market risk premiums to quickly retreat, with oil prices plummeting over 5% in a single day, dropping from above $105 to around $95; over the weekend, affected by geopolitical uncertainties, prices rebounded slightly to close at $96.6, forming a long downward candle on the weekly chart, indicating a clear signal of retreat from high levels.

Technical indicator situation

The moving averages generally signal a strong sell, with only 1 of 11 moving averages indicating a buy, and the remaining 10 signaling a sell; overall technical indicators are neutral, with RSI (14) at 48.35 in the neutral zone, Stochastics indicating a buy signal, MACD in the negative zone signaling a sell, and ADX indicating a buy, resulting in mixed bullish and bearish signals, with a short-term weak correction trend. On the daily chart, prices broke below the 5-day and 10-day short-term moving averages, MACD lines turned downward, and the green momentum bars began to enlarge, indicating a release of bearish momentum.

Key support and resistance levels

Upper short-term resistance levels: the first resistance at $104, which is the rebound resistance after the weekly high; the second resistance at $108, the previous high stage, forming a strong resistance.

Lower short-term support levels: the first support at $92, the potential lower boundary of this correction; the second support at $90, a strong support tested multiple times previously, which has not been effectively broken recently; if $90 is broken, the next support is at $81, corresponding to the lower band of Bollinger Bands as a dynamic support.

Outlook for this week

The current geopolitical situation is the core variable affecting oil prices: significant disagreements in US-Iran negotiations, with Iran’s hardliners controlling decision-making, and ongoing tensions in the Middle East making substantial de-escalation unlikely, with supply disruption risks still supporting prices; however, Trump’s recent statements on negotiations have quickly squeezed out previous premiums, leading to cautious market sentiment in the short term. From a technical perspective, after prices broke below the high-level consolidation zone, it is expected that next week will see prices fluctuate within the $92-$104 range, with no further breakthroughs in geopolitical news, and prices digesting volatility around current levels; if substantial progress occurs in US-Iran negotiations, oil prices could further test support at $90; if negotiations break down and the Strait of Hormuz shipping risks escalate again, prices may rebound to test resistance at $104. Trading strategies should focus on buying low and selling high within the range, paying close attention to geopolitical developments and EIA inventory data. $FUTU $PDD