These past few days, I’ve again seen people use ETF fund flows and the little bit of risk appetite in the US stock market to explain crypto’s ups and downs—like they’re doing a weather forecast… It sounds pretty lively, but I find NFTs more realistic: when the floor gets cold, liquidity sinks like tea leaves hitting the bottom; when royalties drop, the narrative cools down too—people talk loudly in the community, but buy orders keep getting thinner. To put it simply: what’s hot is the story; what’s cold is the trades.

The thing I fear most, as an impulsive type, is waking up in the middle of the night and seeing the words “warming up,” then accidentally swiping and buying. So I’ve got a simple folk method: first, throw the NFT I want to buy into my favorites, go wash a cup / pour out some water, then come back and take another look at the floor price and the last few trades to see if anyone is actually picking them up… If it’s still just a performance, then forget it—don’t chase hot soup. First, check whether it’s hot or not. For now, that’s it.