#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 U.S. stocks surged 16% in two months: it has only happened four times in history, the most recent being before the 1987 crash!

The strong rebound in U.S. stocks over the past two months is triggering historical alarms. The S&P 500 index rose a total of 16% from April to May, a gain that has only occurred four times since World War II, three of which happened during recovery phases after recessions, with the only non-recession precedent being just a few months before the 1987 "Black Monday" crash.
Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen pointed out that this current rally is not occurring in the context of a recession recovery, making the historical comparison particularly striking. Meanwhile, credit spreads remain at historic lows, but signals of consumer pressure are accumulating, Fed rate hike expectations are rising, and the divergence between the sovereign bond market and stocks continues to widen. Under multiple risk factors stacking up, tail risks in the market are unusually concentrated.
Henry Allen wrote in the report, "The tail risks currently distributed are exceptionally prominent, both geopolitically and in the market."
Rare historical precedent, only one in a non-recession context!
The S&P 500 gained 16% over April and May, a rare occurrence only four times since WWII. Three of these were strong rebounds following recessions: the recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic from April to May 2020, the rebound after the global financial crisis from March to April 2009, and the recovery after the first oil crisis from January to February 1975. The fourth was from January to February 1987. At that time, only a few months remained before October's "Black Monday" — when the S&P 500 plunged 20% in a single day.
Henry Allen emphasized that this rally is supported by fundamentals, including enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and strong economic data, but "the pace of the rise has already broken all recent precedents." In an economy that has not emerged from a recession, such a rapid rebound has never ended well in history. Additionally, the S&P 500 is on track to achieve its fourth consecutive year of double-digit gains, a record that has not been seen since the late 1990s.
Overly optimistic credit markets, consumer pressure signals being ignored!
The strength in the stock market is also spreading to credit markets. Credit spreads in the U.S. and Europe are now narrower than before the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict, indicating high market risk tolerance. However, warning signals at the consumer level are accumulating. The U.S. April savings rate was only 2.6%, a level only seen twice in history: during a single month in 2022 (when excess savings accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic were being depleted), and just before the global financial crisis. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index hit its lowest level since records began in 1952 in May. The monetary policy environment is also tightening. The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates this month, and market bets on the Fed raising rates in 2026 are heating up — with U.S. PCE inflation reaching 3.8% year-over-year in April, supporting these expectations.
Henry Allen pointed out that historically, hawkish Fed stances tend to coincide with widening credit spreads, as seen in 2022, late 2018, and 2015-2016. The current calm in credit markets is a clear deviation from this historical pattern.
Bonds are under pressure alone, with divergence from stocks continuing to widen!
Despite the stock and credit markets showing high immunity to geopolitical risks, the sovereign bond market has taken a completely different path. Over the past month, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has almost entirely followed oil prices, diverging sharply from other asset classes. In mid-May, sovereign bond yields hit multi-year highs: the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 5.18%, the highest since 2007; the 10-year German bund yield rose to 3.19%, the highest since 2011. At that time, stocks were just a step away from their all-time highs, while bond yields were at levels unseen in over a decade. This divergence has shown no signs of convergence to date.
Henry Allen believes that bonds price inflation and fiscal risks more directly, making them more sensitive to geopolitical shocks. The persistent divergence between stocks and bonds itself reflects the fragility of the current market.
Oil prices unexpectedly stable, becoming a key support for risk assets!
The Strait of Hormuz blockade has lasted much longer than initially expected, but oil prices responded surprisingly mildly, partly explaining the resilience of risk assets. When the U.S.-Iran conflict erupted on February 28, the White House initially expected the action to last 4 to 6 weeks. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked to this day. Market data from Polymarket predicts that the probability of normal navigation resuming by the end of June has dropped sharply from about 80% in mid-April to 22%.
Nevertheless, the oil futures curve remains relatively stable. Two weeks after the conflict broke out on March 13, Brent crude six-month futures closed at $85.66 per barrel; by June 1, the contract was still around $84.88, nearly unchanged.
Henry Allen pointed out that because the oil futures curve has not shifted significantly upward, investors have not priced in severe stagflation risks, avoiding larger-scale sell-offs in risk assets. However, he also warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, whether this support can be maintained remains uncertain. $US500