BTC drops below $63,000: a healthy pullback in a bull market, or a trend reversal?

On June 4, Bitcoin fell below $63,000, dropping in sync with ETH. The entire network saw $1.1 billion in liquidations—shocking to say the least. Many people are starting to panic: is the bull market still here?

First, let’s look at a set of historical data. During the 2024-2025 bull market, Bitcoin rose from $15,000 to $73,000. During that period, pullbacks of over 10% occurred at least 6 times, and after each pullback, new highs were set. From this round’s start at $49,000 up to $73,000, the biggest pullback so far is about 13.6%. In a bull-market cycle, this level of drawdown is within the normal range— even on the smaller side.

What really needs to be wary is not the pullback itself, but the rebound strength after it. If BTC cannot reclaim $65,000 within the next week and continues to trade weakly with consolidation below $63,000, the medium-term trend may shift to “high-level range-bound” consolidation. Conversely, if it can quickly recover the $64,000–$64,500 area, then this is only a healthy leverage shakeout.

From on-chain data, long-term holders are still accumulating, while short-term holders are panicking and selling off. The amount of BTC held by exchanges is at the lowest level in nearly three years, indicating that the “smart money” has not exited in a big way. After $1.1 billion worth of contracts were liquidated, total open interest fell significantly, and the market has shed a heavy leverage burden. This is usually a sign of a rebound—not the beginning of a crash.

My price forecast: BTC’s short-term support is at $62,000–$62,500, with strong support at the $60,000 psychological level. Resistance is at $64,500–$65,000. I believe the next week will mainly be sideways base-building, and in mid to late June, there’s a chance to challenge $68,000–$70,000 again.

Trading strategy: buy spot BTC in batches in the $62,000–$63,000 range, and set a stop-loss below $59,000. Don’t touch futures contracts, and don’t try to short. In a bull market, pullbacks are an opportunity for those who missed the entry to get on board—not an opportunity to hand leveraged gamblers a chance at risking their lives.

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