🔥 🪙 Gold Morning Briefing | Thursday, June 25, 2026

📊 Key Data
Table
Indicator Value Change
Spot Gold $3,994/oz 24h -2.8%
COMEX Gold Futures $4,010/oz +0.1%
Shanghai Gold AU9999 ¥868/gram -26.39
Domestic Base Gold Price ¥873/gram -1.15
7-Day Change -8.9% 7 consecutive bearish days
ATH Drawdown -28.6% From January high of $5,595
Silver $57.96/oz -5.8%, nearly halved
DXY 101.78 13-month high
@E1Overnight Events
1. Gold falls below $4,000 psychological level, hits 7-month low
Spot gold touched a low of **$3,964.42** overnight, the lowest since November 2025
A large number of long stop-loss orders piled up around the $4,000 level, triggering a chain reaction of programmed stop-losses after the break
A slight rebound in late trading to near $3,995, but the bounce was extremely weak
2. Core PCE data expectations rise, probability of rate hike spikes to 88%
Market pricing for a September rate hike has reached 70-88% (cross-verified by multiple sources)
10-year Treasury yield rises to 4.42% (11-month high)
DXY hits 101.78, a 13-month high
3. 8 major international banks collectively lower gold price targets
Goldman Sachs: Year-end $4,900 (down $500)
Deutsche Bank: Q3 $4,300 (down 22%), extreme scenario $3,800
Citigroup: 3-month target lowered from $4,300 to $4,000
JPMorgan: Average price forecast lowered from $5,708 to $5,243
ING: Q3 $4,300, Q4 $4,600
4. ICBC suspends personal precious metals leveraged trading
From July 24, ICBC will fully suspend personal precious metals competitive trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange
Postal Savings Bank, Ping An, and CGB had already suspended such services
Banks collectively tighten risk controls, further narrowing leveraged trading channels for retail investors
5. Powell House testimony: Reiterates no rush to cut rates
"Will continue tightening if inflation rebounds"
Short-term, completely dispels market expectations of easing
📐 Support and Resistance
Table
Level Price Description
Immediate Support $3,900-$3,964 Overnight low + central bank buying zone
Key Support $3,857-$3,887 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of uptrend since 2015
Extreme Support $3,500 Phase high from October 2025
Immediate Resistance $4,060-$4,100 Former support turns resistance
Strong Resistance $4,300 Bollinger Band mid-line + 100-day moving average
Dense Resistance $4,470-$4,500 200-day + 50-day moving average crossover
🎯 Strategy
Short-term view: Deeply oversold but not a reversal; below $4,000 enters a "technical no-man's land"
PCE data is the decisive variable at 8:30 PM tonight:
Core PCE y/y expected 3.4%; if ≥3.5% → rate hike expectations surge → $3,800
Core PCE ≤3.2% → hawkish expectations corrected → short covering bounce to $4,100-$4,150
In line with expectations 3.4% → maintain weak consolidation $3,900-$4,100
Trading suggestions:
⚠️ Do not bottom-fish on the left side; below $4,000, the risk of programmatic stop-losses and liquidity cascades is extremely high
Wait for the PCE data to land before making decisions; 8:30 PM tonight is the key time point
RSI has reached 27-30 (severely oversold), but oversold is not a reversal signal
Central bank buying is still absorbing around $3,900 (long-term support logic unchanged)
Leveraged traders should strictly control positions; surviving is more important than guessing correctly
⏰ Key Time Points
Table
Time Event Impact
Today 20:30 US May Core PCE + Q1 GDP Final 🔴 Decisive
Today 20:30 Initial Jobless Claims ⭐⭐⭐
Friday 22:00 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final ⭐⭐
July FOMC Next FOMC Meeting ⭐⭐⭐⭐
💡 Core View
Gold has officially entered a bear market (drawdown over 20% from ATH), and the $4,000 psychological level has been broken. The biggest pressure currently is not geopolitics (risk premium has faded) but interest rate logic — the triple pressure of rate hike expectations + strong dollar + capital outflows. Central banks are still buying (19 consecutive months and counting), which is the only long-term anchor.
But short-term, tonight's PCE data is the watershed: Hot data → see $3,800; Cold data → possible technical bounce. Don't rush to bottom-fish; wait for the data to land first.