Normally speaking, Japan vs. Sweden and Netherlands vs. Tunisia will both produce high-scoring games. Let me give you a technical analysis.

Brazil has already secured the top spot in Group C and will face the second-place team from Group F in the knockout stage. However, in Group F, the Netherlands and Japan have the same head-to-head record and the same goal difference, except the Netherlands has scored 7 goals while Japan has scored 6.

I believe no one wants to face a full-strength Brazil in the World Cup, even though Japan once came back from two goals down to beat Brazil in a recent friendly. I think the second-place team in Group F is at the level of the 32-team average, while the first-place team in Group F will first play Morocco, then face the winner of South Africa and Canada—essentially a likely quarterfinal spot. Leaving the Netherlands aside, this would be a historic breakthrough for Japan.

So for both matches, you can predict a handicap win of 2.5 goals. For their opponents, Sweden currently has 3 points and is likely to advance as long as they don't lose by too many goals, so they will focus on defense. Tunisia, on the other hand, is already playing for honor, but even a full defensive effort won't be enough.

Japan's odds are abnormal—I don't know what happened. Is it a mispricing? Can anyone explain?