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May 2026 durable goods orders month-over-month decline less than -4% is a 100% certainty consensus in the market
The probability of betting on a month-over-month decline of less than -4% is 99%. The blue curve has been continuously rising since June 10, with a sharp spike at the end of the session confirming the unanimous expectation. The market fully believes that the data will show a deep decline, and a drop significantly below the -4% range is the only reasonable outcome.